AS Roma
vs
Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: AS Roma 2–1 Real Madrid
The model makes it 47% AS Roma, 26% draw, 27% Real Madrid — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: AS Roma 2.22, Real Madrid 1.36.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AS Roma are 17th on 1 point from 1 game; Real Madrid are 14th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Inter.
- Real Madrid have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Atletico Madrid.
- Last 5 meetings: Real Madrid 5 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 November 2018, ended AS Roma 0–2 Real Madrid.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: AS Roma vs Real Madrid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AS Roma vs Real Madrid
AS Roma
- D1-1away to Fenerbahçe10 September 2026
Real Madrid
- W2-1Inter8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Real Madrid
- 27 November 2018AS Roma 0–2 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
- 19 September 2018Real Madrid 3–0 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
- 8 August 2018Real Madrid 2–1 AS RomaInternational Champions Cup
- 8 March 2016Real Madrid 2–0 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
- 17 February 2016AS Roma 0–2 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AS Roma carry a model rating of 7.33 against 7.25 for Real Madrid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for AS Roma and 1.36 for Real Madrid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AS Roma rate 1.62 in attack and 0.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Madrid rate 1.59 and 0.71.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Real Madrid, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for AS Roma against 1.36 for Real Madrid. AS Roma's attack/defence rating is 1.62/0.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.59/0.71 for Real Madrid.
Season stats
AS Roma at home · Real Madrid away
League matches only, this season — AS Roma in the Serie A, Real Madrid in the La Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: AS Roma 5 in the Serie A, Real Madrid 7 in the La Liga.
AS Roma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Real Madrid have let in 2 there.
Real Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); AS Roma have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
AS Roma
- vs Genoa17 Oct · Serie Awin 62%
- vs Slovan Bratislava20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 75%
- at Napoli24 Oct · Serie Awin 42%
- vs Cagliari27 Oct · Serie Awin 54%
Real Madrid
- vs Sevilla18 Oct · La Ligawin 60%
- vs RB Leipzig21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 55%
- at Barcelona25 Oct · La Ligawin 28%
- at Racing Santander1 Nov · La Ligawin 60%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.