Chicago Fire
vs
Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Chicago Fire 2–1 Philadelphia Union
The model makes it 37% Chicago Fire, 26% draw, 37% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chicago Fire 1.83, Philadelphia Union 1.84.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Chicago Fire are 5th on 42 points from 26 games; Philadelphia Union are 6th on 39 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Chicago Fire have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Charlotte.
- Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 4-2 win at home to Orlando City SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Philadelphia Union 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Philadelphia Union 1–2 Chicago Fire.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chicago Fire at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution13 September 2026
- D1-1Inter Miami10 September 2026
- D4-4away to Toronto FC5 September 2026
Philadelphia Union
- W4-2Orlando City SC26 September 2026
- W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
- W5-0FC Cincinnati9 September 2026
- W2-0CF Montreal5 September 2026
What these results say
- Chicago Fire failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union won every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Philadelphia Union had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 42 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
- 21 March 2026Philadelphia Union 1–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 1 November 2025Chicago Fire 0–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 26 October 2025Philadelphia Union 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 23 August 2025Philadelphia Union 4–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 26 June 2025Chicago Fire 0–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 4 July 2024Chicago Fire 4–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
- H. Cuypers13 goals
Philadelphia Union
- M. Iloski16 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chicago Fire carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.67 for Philadelphia Union. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.84 for Philadelphia Union. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chicago Fire rate 0.76 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Philadelphia Union rate 0.92 and 1.32.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chicago Fire the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Chicago Fire against 1.84 for Philadelphia Union. Chicago Fire's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.32 for Philadelphia Union.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chicago Fire at home · Philadelphia Union away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Chicago Fire 26, Philadelphia Union 27.
Chicago Fire score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Philadelphia Union have let in 7 there.
Philadelphia Union score most often in the 61–75 minute window (15 goals); Chicago Fire have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Chicago Fire
- at New England Revolution17 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 32%
- at Atlanta United FC24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 38%
- vs Orlando City SC29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 47%
Philadelphia Union
- vs Charlotte17 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 46%
- vs New England Revolution24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 47%
- at Nashville SC29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
- at FC Cincinnati31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.