Everton
vs
Chelsea
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Everton 2–1 Chelsea
The model makes it 40% Everton, 28% draw, 32% Chelsea — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Everton 1.71, Chelsea 1.43.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Everton are 7th on 9 points from 5 games; Chelsea are 10th on 7 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Everton are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Ipswich.
- Chelsea are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Brentford.
- Last 6 meetings: Chelsea 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Everton 3–0 Chelsea.
All Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Everton vs Chelsea
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Everton at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Everton vs Chelsea
Everton
- W1-0Ipswich19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tottenham12 September 2026
- D2-2Manchester United6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bournemouth29 August 2026
- W2-0Crystal Palace22 August 2026
Chelsea
- L0-3away to Brentford18 September 2026
- D2-2Hull City12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Arsenal6 September 2026
- W4-3Brighton30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham24 August 2026
What these results say
- Everton went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Everton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Everton had two goals or fewer.
- Chelsea conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Chelsea had three goals or more.
- Chelsea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Everton vs Chelsea
- 21 March 2026Everton 3–0 ChelseaPremier League
- 13 December 2025Chelsea 2–0 EvertonPremier League
- 26 April 2025Chelsea 1–0 EvertonPremier League
- 22 December 2024Everton 0–0 ChelseaPremier League
- 15 April 2024Chelsea 6–0 EvertonPremier League
- 10 December 2023Everton 2–0 ChelseaPremier League
Leading scorers: Everton and Chelsea
Everton
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Chelsea
- João Pedro3 goals3 assists
- M. Rogers3 goals1 assist
- C. Palmer2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Everton carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.89 for Chelsea. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Everton and 1.43 for Chelsea. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Everton rate 0.94 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chelsea rate 1.21 and 1.14.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Everton the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Everton against 1.43 for Chelsea. Everton's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/1.14 for Chelsea.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Everton at home · Chelsea away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Everton 5, Chelsea 5.
Everton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Chelsea have let in 3 there.
Chelsea score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Everton have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Everton
- at Arsenal24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- at Newcastle2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Coventry6 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 49%
- at Brentford23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Chelsea
- vs Tottenham24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- vs Manchester United31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Sunderland8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Leeds21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.