Lask Linz
vs
Liverpool
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Lask Linz 1–2 Liverpool
The model makes it 27% Lask Linz, 25% draw, 48% Liverpool — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Lask Linz 1.51, Liverpool 2.42.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lask Linz are 28th on 0 points from 1 game; Liverpool are 13th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- Lask Linz have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-3 draw away to TSV Hartberg.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Bournemouth.
- Last 2 meetings: Liverpool 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 November 2023, ended Liverpool 4–0 Lask Linz.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lask Linz vs Liverpool
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Liverpool at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lask Linz vs Liverpool
Lask Linz
- L0-1away to AEK Athens FC8 September 2026
- L0-3away to Celtic19 August 2026
Liverpool
- W2-1Atletico Madrid9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lask Linz vs Liverpool
- 30 November 2023Liverpool 4–0 Lask LinzUEFA Europa League
- 21 September 2023Lask Linz 1–3 LiverpoolUEFA Europa League
The two sides
Lask Linz carry a model rating of 6.71 against 7.1 for Liverpool. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Lask Linz and 2.42 for Liverpool. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lask Linz rate 0.98 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Liverpool rate 1.32 and 0.80.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Liverpool the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lask Linz against 2.42 for Liverpool. Lask Linz's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/0.8 for Liverpool.
Season stats
Lask Linz at home · Liverpool away
League matches only, this season — Lask Linz in the Bundesliga, Liverpool in the Premier League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Lask Linz 7 in the Bundesliga, Liverpool 5 in the Premier League.
Lask Linz score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Liverpool have let in 1 there.
Liverpool score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Lask Linz have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lask Linz
- at Austria Lustenau17 Oct · Bundesligawin 51%
- at Sporting CP21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 12%
- vs Red Bull Salzburg25 Oct · Bundesligawin 39%
- vs WSG Wattens31 Oct · Bundesligawin 61%
Liverpool
- at Brentford17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs Villarreal20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 49%
- vs Brighton25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs Arsenal1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.