Huracan
vs
Gimnasia La Plata
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Huracan 1–0 Gimnasia La Plata
The model makes it 41% Huracan, 31% draw, 28% Gimnasia La Plata — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Huracan 1.27, Gimnasia La Plata 0.87.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Huracan are 6th on 16 points from 10 games; Gimnasia La Plata are 4th on 18 points from 11 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Huracan are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to River Plate.
- Gimnasia La Plata are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Independiente Rivadavia.
- Last 6 meetings: Gimnasia La Plata 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Gimnasia La Plata 0–3 Huracan.
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Huracan vs Gimnasia La Plata
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Huracan at 41% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Huracan vs Gimnasia La Plata
Huracan
- W2-1away to River Plate19 September 2026
- W2-1Racing Club14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Belgrano Cordoba4 September 2026
- D1-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto29 August 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Riestra23 August 2026
Gimnasia La Plata
- D1-1away to Independiente Rivadavia3 October 2026
- D2-2Banfield19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Argentinos Juniors13 September 2026
- W2-1Tigre5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Rosario Central29 August 2026
What these results say
- Huracan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Huracan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Huracan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Huracan | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Gimnasia La Plata | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Huracan vs Gimnasia La Plata
- 5 April 2026Gimnasia La Plata 0–3 HuracanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 November 2024Huracan 0–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 February 2024Gimnasia La Plata 3–1 HuracanCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 20 September 2023Huracan 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 13 June 2023Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 HuracanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 July 2022Huracan 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Huracan and Gimnasia La Plata
Huracan
- J. Caicedo13 goals
Gimnasia La Plata
- M. Torres8 goals1 assist
- A. Auzmendi7 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Huracan carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.65 for Gimnasia La Plata. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Huracan and 0.87 for Gimnasia La Plata. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Huracan rate 0.75 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimnasia La Plata rate 0.92 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Huracan the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Huracan against 0.87 for Gimnasia La Plata. Huracan's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.38 for Gimnasia La Plata.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Huracan at home · Gimnasia La Plata away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Huracan 28, Gimnasia La Plata 29.
Huracan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Gimnasia La Plata have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Huracan
- at Rosario Central25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 27%
- vs Tigre1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 39%
- at Argentinos Juniors8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 27%
Gimnasia La Plata
- vs Sarmiento Junin25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 44%
- at Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 41%
- vs Belgrano Cordoba8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.