Boca Juniors
vs
Vasco da Gama
CONMEBOL Sudamericana prediction
Our model says: Boca Juniors 2–0 Vasco da Gama
The model makes it 50% Boca Juniors, 27% draw, 23% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.97, Vasco da Gama 0.96.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Boca Juniors are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Universidad Catolica.
- Vasco da Gama are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Santa Fe.
All CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Boca Juniors vs Vasco da Gama
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Boca Juniors at 50% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Boca Juniors vs Vasco da Gama
Boca Juniors
- W3-0Union Santa Fe3 October 2026
- W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026
- W1-0Lanus29 August 2026
Vasco da Gama
- W2-0Santa Fe15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Santa Fe8 September 2026
- W4-1away to Olimpia20 August 2026
- D0-0Olimpia13 August 2026
- W1-0Independiente Medellin29 July 2026
What these results say
- Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vasco da Gama had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Vasco da Gama
Boca Juniors
- M. Merentiel3 goals1 assist
Vasco da Gama
- Adson4 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Boca Juniors carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.68 for Vasco da Gama. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.96 for Vasco da Gama. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Boca Juniors rate 1.07 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasco da Gama rate 0.89 and 1.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Boca Juniors the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Boca Juniors against 0.96 for Vasco da Gama. Boca Juniors's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.25 for Vasco da Gama.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Boca Juniors at home · Vasco da Gama away
League matches only, this season — Boca Juniors in the Liga Profesional Argentina, Vasco da Gama in the Serie A. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Boca Juniors 28 in the Liga Profesional Argentina, Vasco da Gama 27 in the Serie A.
Boca Juniors score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Vasco da Gama have let in 9 there.
Vasco da Gama score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Boca Juniors have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Boca Juniors
- vs Talleres Cordoba18 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 52%
- at Vasco da Gama21 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericanawin 37%
- at Independiente25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 39%
- vs River Plate1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 46%
Vasco da Gama
- at Sao Paulo18 Oct · Serie Awin 29%
- vs Boca Juniors21 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericanawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.