Columbus Crew
vs
Charlotte
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Columbus Crew 2–1 Charlotte
The model makes it 36% Columbus Crew, 28% draw, 36% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Columbus Crew 1.51, Charlotte 1.49.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Columbus Crew and Charlotte are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Columbus Crew are 12th on 29 points from 27 games; Charlotte are 4th on 43 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Columbus Crew have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Inter Miami.
- Charlotte have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Chicago Fire.
- Last 6 meetings: Charlotte 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Charlotte 3–1 Columbus Crew.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Columbus Crew at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
Columbus Crew
- W2-1Inter Miami27 September 2026
- W2-0away to CF Montreal19 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls12 September 2026
- L1-2away to DC United9 September 2026
- W3-0Colorado Rapids5 September 2026
Charlotte
- L0-1Chicago Fire26 September 2026
- W2-1away to DC United19 September 2026
- D3-3away to FC Cincinnati12 September 2026
- W2-1away to CF Montreal9 September 2026
- D0-0Houston Dynamo5 September 2026
What these results say
- Columbus Crew scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Columbus Crew | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 29 |
| 4 | Charlotte | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
- 15 August 2026Charlotte 3–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 24 May 2025Charlotte 3–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 3 May 2025Columbus Crew 4–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2024Columbus Crew 1–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2024Charlotte 2–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 3 June 2023Columbus Crew 4–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Columbus Crew carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.58 for Charlotte. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.49 for Charlotte. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Columbus Crew rate 0.65 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charlotte rate 0.74 and 1.27.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Columbus Crew the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Columbus Crew against 1.49 for Charlotte. Columbus Crew's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.27 for Charlotte.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Columbus Crew at home · Charlotte away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Columbus Crew 27, Charlotte 27.
Columbus Crew score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Charlotte have let in 4 there.
Charlotte score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); Columbus Crew have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Columbus Crew
- at FC Cincinnati18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 34%
- vs Toronto FC24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 42%
- at FC Dallas29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 29%
- vs DC United31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 43%
Charlotte
- at Philadelphia Union17 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 28%
- at Portland Timbers25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 37%
- vs CF Montreal28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 52%
- vs Orlando City SC31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.