Red Bull Salzburg
vs
AC Milan
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Red Bull Salzburg 1–2 AC Milan
The model makes it 28% Red Bull Salzburg, 29% draw, 43% AC Milan — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Red Bull Salzburg 1.13, AC Milan 1.67.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Red Bull Salzburg are 14th on 3 points from 1 game; AC Milan are 30th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Levski Sofia.
- AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Lecce.
- Last 2 meetings: AC Milan 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 November 2022, ended AC Milan 4–0 Red Bull Salzburg.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AC Milan at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan
Red Bull Salzburg
- W1-0away to Levski Sofia17 September 2026
- W3-0Mjallby AIF27 August 2026
- W1-0away to Mjallby AIF20 August 2026
- D3-3away to Pafos13 August 2026
- W1-0Pafos6 August 2026
AC Milan
- L0-2Benfica16 September 2026
What these results say
- Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan
- 2 November 2022AC Milan 4–0 Red Bull SalzburgUEFA Champions League
- 6 September 2022Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 AC MilanUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan
Red Bull Salzburg
- H. Tabaković1 goal
AC Milan
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Red Bull Salzburg carry a model rating of 6.76 against 7.11 for AC Milan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.67 for AC Milan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Red Bull Salzburg rate 0.92 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AC Milan rate 1.25 and 0.74.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Red Bull Salzburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AC Milan the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg against 1.67 for AC Milan. Red Bull Salzburg's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.25/0.74 for AC Milan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Red Bull Salzburg at home · AC Milan away
League matches only, this season — Red Bull Salzburg in the Bundesliga, AC Milan in the Serie A. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Red Bull Salzburg 7 in the Bundesliga, AC Milan 5 in the Serie A.
Red Bull Salzburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); AC Milan have let in 3 there.
AC Milan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Red Bull Salzburg have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Red Bull Salzburg
- vs SCR Altach18 Oct · Bundesligawin 61%
- at Celje22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- at Lask Linz25 Oct · Bundesligawin 34%
- vs Austria Lustenau1 Nov · Bundesligawin 63%
AC Milan
- vs Atalanta18 Oct · Serie Awin 39%
- at Bournemouth22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- at Udinese25 Oct · Serie Awin 43%
- vs Bologna28 Oct · Serie Awin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.