Brentford
vs
Liverpool
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Brentford 1–2 Liverpool
The model makes it 35% Brentford, 28% draw, 37% Liverpool — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Brentford 1.47, Liverpool 1.58.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Brentford and Liverpool are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Brentford are 4th on 9 points from 5 games; Liverpool are 6th on 9 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Brentford are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Chelsea.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Bournemouth.
- Last 6 meetings: Liverpool 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Liverpool 1–1 Brentford.
All Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Brentford vs Liverpool
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Liverpool at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Brentford vs Liverpool
Brentford
- W3-0Chelsea18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bournemouth12 September 2026
- D1-1Sunderland5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Leeds30 August 2026
- W3-0Tottenham22 August 2026
Liverpool
- W1-0away to Bournemouth20 September 2026
- D0-0Fulham12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Ipswich4 September 2026
- D2-2Nottingham Forest29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle23 August 2026
What these results say
- Brentford went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Brentford scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Liverpool went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Liverpool scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Brentford vs Liverpool
- 24 May 2026Liverpool 1–1 BrentfordPremier League
- 25 October 2025Brentford 3–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- 18 January 2025Brentford 0–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- 25 August 2024Liverpool 2–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 17 February 2024Brentford 1–4 LiverpoolPremier League
- 12 November 2023Liverpool 3–0 BrentfordPremier League
Leading scorers: Brentford and Liverpool
Brentford
- K. Schade3 goals
Liverpool
- A. Isak4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Brentford carry a model rating of 7 against 7.1 for Liverpool. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Brentford and 1.58 for Liverpool. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brentford rate 1.15 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Liverpool rate 1.32 and 0.80.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Brentford, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Liverpool the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Brentford against 1.58 for Liverpool. Brentford's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/0.8 for Liverpool.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Brentford at home · Liverpool away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Brentford 5, Liverpool 5.
Liverpool score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Brentford have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Brentford
- at Hull City25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Nottingham Forest31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Brighton8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Everton23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 42%
Liverpool
- vs Villarreal20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 49%
- vs Brighton25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs Arsenal1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.