VVV Venlo
vs
Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: VVV Venlo 2–1 Waalwijk
The model makes it 48% VVV Venlo, 26% draw, 26% Waalwijk — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: VVV Venlo 1.75, Waalwijk 1.17.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. VVV Venlo's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Waalwijk's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- VVV Venlo are 2nd on 29 points from 14 games; Waalwijk are 11th on 17 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- VVV Venlo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Jong PSV U21.
- Waalwijk have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FC OSS.
- Last 6 meetings: VVV Venlo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 March 2026, ended VVV Venlo 0–3 Waalwijk.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk
Has the model earned this number?
VVV Venlo at 48%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk
VVV Venlo
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1Jong PSV U216 November 2026
- W2-1away to MVV31 October 2026
- W4-2away to Dordrecht24 October 2026
- D4-4Jong AZ16 October 2026
- W3-0away to Jong Ajax9 October 2026
Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1away to FC OSS6 November 2026
- L1-2Almere City FC30 October 2026
- D1-1away to De Graafschap23 October 2026
- D1-1FC Volendam18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Heracles9 October 2026
What these results say
- VVV Venlo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- VVV Venlo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- VVV Venlo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Waalwijk did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Waalwijk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Waalwijk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 22 | +15 | 29 |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk
- 6 March 2026VVV Venlo 0–3 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 5 December 2025Waalwijk 1–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 8 May 2021VVV Venlo 3–3 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 5 December 2020Waalwijk 3–2 VVV VenloEredivisie
- 25 January 2020Waalwijk 1–2 VVV VenloEredivisie
- 3 August 2019VVV Venlo 3–1 WaalwijkEredivisie
Leading scorers: VVV Venlo and Waalwijk
VVV Venlo
GoalsAssists
- L. Schmidt51
- É. Clancy50
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VVV Venlo a 3.6% chance of the title and Waalwijk 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VVV Venlo the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for VVV Venlo against 1.17 for Waalwijk. VVV Venlo's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.54 for Waalwijk.
How the model reaches 48% for VVV Venlo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for VVV Venlo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, VVV Venlo's ratings add 3 points and Waalwijk's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- VVV Venlo's ratings47%+3
- Waalwijk's ratings48%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
VVV Venlo at home · Waalwijk away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: VVV Venlo 14, Waalwijk 14.
VVV Venlo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Waalwijk have let in 2 there.
Waalwijk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); VVV Venlo have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
VVV Venlo
- at Vitesse4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- at Almere City FC11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
- vs Jong Utrecht19 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 59%
Waalwijk
- vs Jong AZ4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
- at Jong Utrecht11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 38%
- vs Jong Ajax18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.