Regular Season - 17 · 27 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Jong AZ vs FC OSS Eerste Divisie prediction

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Our model says: Jong AZ 2–1 FC OSS

The model makes it 47% Jong AZ, 25% draw, 28% FC OSS — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Jong AZ 1.87, FC OSS 1.35.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Jong AZ's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and FC OSS's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Jong AZ are 12th on 17 points from 14 games; FC OSS are 16th on 14 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Jong AZ have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Almere City FC.
  • FC OSS are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Waalwijk.
  • Last 6 meetings: FC OSS 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended FC OSS 0–3 Jong AZ.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Jong AZ vs FC OSS

63%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Jong AZ win Draw FC OSS win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 2–07%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Jong AZ first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Jong AZ at 47%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Jong AZ vs FC OSS

Jong AZ

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-3Almere City FC6 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Roda30 October 2026
  • W5-4Helmond Sport23 October 2026
  • D4-4away to VVV Venlo16 October 2026
  • L0-1Den Bosch9 October 2026

FC OSS

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1Waalwijk6 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Heracles2 November 2026
  • D3-3Jong Ajax23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Den Bosch16 October 2026
  • W3-1Helmond Sport9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Jong AZ conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jong AZ failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jong AZ scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC OSS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC OSS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC OSS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Jong AZ145273331+217
16FC OSS144282023-314

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Jong AZ vs FC OSS

  • 13 February 2026FC OSS 0–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 24 November 2025Jong AZ 0–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
  • 2 August 2025FC OSS 2–1 Jong AZFriendlies Clubs
  • 31 March 2025Jong AZ 1–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
  • 25 October 2024FC OSS 2–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 26 April 2024FC OSS 1–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong AZ and FC OSS

Jong AZ

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

FC OSS

GoalsAssists

  • M. Hinoke50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Jong AZ FC OSS
0.69 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.52
2.16 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.67
1.87 Model expected goals (this match) 1.35

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Jong AZ the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Jong AZ against 1.35 for FC OSS. Jong AZ's attack/defence rating is 0.69/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.67 for FC OSS.

How the model reaches 47% for Jong AZ to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Jong AZ to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Jong AZ's ratings add 2 points and FC OSS's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. Jong AZ's ratings48%+2
  5. FC OSS's ratings47%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Jong AZFC OSS
14Matches14
5W 2D 7LRecord4W 2D 8L
33 2.4 per gameGoals scored20 1.4 per game
31 2.2 per gameGoals conceded23 1.6 per game
0 of 14Clean sheets1 of 14
2 of 14Failed to score4 of 14
2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
17 1.2 per gameYellow cards24 1.7 per game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape4-3-3 12×

Jong AZ at home · FC OSS away

7Played7
3W 0D 4LRecord0W 0D 7L
13–13Goals for – against3–14
0 of 7Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong AZ 14, FC OSS 14.

Jong AZ scored 382468
FC OSS conceded 235224
FC OSS scored 353345
Jong AZ conceded 229575

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Jong AZ

  • at Waalwijk4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
  • vs NAC Breda11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
  • at Helmond Sport18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 34%

FC OSS

  • vs Almere City FC4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
  • vs FC Eindhoven11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 49%
  • at MVV18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 36%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.