Stade Brestois 29
vs
Paris FC
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Paris FC
The model makes it 31% Stade Brestois 29, 26% draw, 43% Paris FC — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.37, Paris FC 1.69.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Edge to Paris FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Stade Brestois 29's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Paris FC's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Stade Brestois 29 are 9th on 15 points from 10 games; Paris FC are 3rd on 20 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Stade Brestois 29 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Lyon.
- Paris FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Auxerre.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Paris FC 4–0 Stade Brestois 29.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris FC
Has the model earned this number?
Paris FC at 43%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris FC
Stade Brestois 29
Ligue 1
- W2-0Lyon8 November 2026
- W2-0away to Lorient2 November 2026
- L1-2Nice23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lille17 October 2026
- W5-1Angers10 October 2026
Paris FC
Ligue 1
- W1-0away to Auxerre7 November 2026
- W3-1Monaco1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Lens24 October 2026
- W4-3Rennes18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Lorient10 October 2026
What these results say
- Stade Brestois 29 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Paris FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Paris FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 15 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris FC
- 3 May 2026Paris FC 4–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 14 September 2025Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Paris FCLigue 1
- 21 January 2019Paris FC 0–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 2
- 10 August 2018Stade Brestois 29 1–1 Paris FCLigue 2
- 24 February 2018Paris FC 0–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 2
- 22 September 2017Stade Brestois 29 1–1 Paris FCLigue 2
Leading scorers: Stade Brestois 29 and Paris FC
Stade Brestois 29
GoalsAssists
- L. Ajorque51
- K. Doumbia42
Paris FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Sinayoko95
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stade Brestois 29 a 0.2% chance of the title and Paris FC 8.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris FC the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.69 for Paris FC. Stade Brestois 29's attack/defence rating is 1/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.81 for Paris FC.
How the model reaches 43% for Paris FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Paris FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Stade Brestois 29's ratings add 6 points and Paris FC's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Stade Brestois 29's ratings37%+6
- Paris FC's ratings43%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Stade Brestois 29 at home · Paris FC away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Stade Brestois 29Paris FC
Stade Brestois 29 are 9th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 4th and 11th so far); Paris FC are 3rd after 10 (between 1st and 9th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Stade Brestois 29 10, Paris FC 10.
Stade Brestois 29 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Paris FC have let in 1 there.
Paris FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Stade Brestois 29 have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stade Brestois 29
- at Rennes6 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
- vs Estac Troyes12 Dec · Ligue 1win 56%
- vs Marseille2 Jan · Ligue 1win 34%
- at Monaco17 Jan · Ligue 1win 26%
Paris FC
- vs Le Mans5 Dec · Ligue 1win 66%
- at Paris Saint Germain12 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
- vs Le Havre2 Jan · Ligue 1win 69%
- vs Toulouse17 Jan · Ligue 1win 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.