De Graafschap
vs
FC OSS
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: De Graafschap 1–0 FC OSS
The model makes it 44% De Graafschap, 28% draw, 28% FC OSS — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: De Graafschap 1.55, FC OSS 1.13.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. De Graafschap's rating is built from 53 Eerste Divisie matches and FC OSS's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- De Graafschap are 14th on 15 points from 13 games; FC OSS are 15th on 13 points from 12 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- De Graafschap have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to FC Volendam.
- FC OSS have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Jong Ajax.
- Last 6 meetings: De Graafschap 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 December 2025, ended FC OSS 2–3 De Graafschap.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: De Graafschap vs FC OSS
Has the model earned this number?
De Graafschap at 44%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into De Graafschap vs FC OSS
De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie
- W2-1away to FC Volendam30 October 2026
- D1-1Waalwijk23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Jong Ajax19 October 2026
- W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Eindhoven3 October 2026
FC OSS
Eerste Divisie
- D3-3Jong Ajax23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Den Bosch16 October 2026
- W3-1Helmond Sport9 October 2026
- W4-1MVV3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Emmen26 September 2026
What these results say
- De Graafschap scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- De Graafschap conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for De Graafschap.
- FC OSS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC OSS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC OSS had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | De Graafschap | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 | FC OSS | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: De Graafschap vs FC OSS
- 20 December 2025FC OSS 2–3 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 18 October 2025De Graafschap 1–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 16 March 2025FC OSS 0–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 22 November 2024De Graafschap 4–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 29 October 2024De Graafschap 4–1 FC OSSKNVB Beker
- 1 March 2024De Graafschap 2–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: De Graafschap and FC OSS
De Graafschap
GoalsAssists
- J. Kania50
FC OSS
GoalsAssists
- M. Hinoke50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives De Graafschap the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for De Graafschap against 1.13 for FC OSS. De Graafschap's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.73 for FC OSS.
How the model reaches 44% for De Graafschap to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for De Graafschap to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, De Graafschap's ratings change nothing and FC OSS's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- De Graafschap's ratings44%±0
- FC OSS's ratings44%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
De Graafschap at home · FC OSS away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: De Graafschap 13, FC OSS 12.
De Graafschap score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); FC OSS have let in 5 there.
FC OSS score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); De Graafschap have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
De Graafschap
- vs MVV20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 55%
- at Roda29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- at Jong PSV U217 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- vs Dordrecht11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
FC OSS
- vs Roda20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 36%
- at Jong AZ27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 28%
- vs Almere City FC4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.