Dordrecht
vs
Heracles
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Dordrecht 0–2 Heracles
The model makes it 18% Dordrecht, 22% draw, 60% Heracles — fair odds of 5.56, 4.55 and 1.67.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Dordrecht 0.99, Heracles 2.23.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
One-sided: Heracles are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Dordrecht's rating is built from 50 Eerste Divisie matches and Heracles's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Dordrecht are 18th on 11 points from 12 games; Heracles are top on 29 points from 12 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Dordrecht have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to VVV Venlo.
- Heracles are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to NAC Breda.
- Last 5 meetings: Heracles 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 May 2023, ended Dordrecht 1–3 Heracles.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dordrecht vs Heracles
Has the model earned this number?
Heracles at 60%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dordrecht vs Heracles
Dordrecht
Eerste Divisie
- L2-4VVV Venlo24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Jong PSV U2119 October 2026
- L0-3Emmen9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Den Bosch3 October 2026
- W3-2Almere City FC25 September 2026
Heracles
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1away to NAC Breda23 October 2026
- W5-1away to MVV18 October 2026
- W3-0Waalwijk9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Helmond Sport2 October 2026
- W2-0Vitesse26 September 2026
What these results say
- Dordrecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dordrecht conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heracles went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Heracles scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Dordrecht | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 11 |
| 1 | Heracles | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 14 | +23 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dordrecht vs Heracles
- 5 May 2023Dordrecht 1–3 HeraclesEerste Divisie
- 16 December 2022Heracles 8–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 18 December 2019Heracles 3–0 DordrechtKNVB Beker
- 4 April 2015Dordrecht 2–3 HeraclesEredivisie
- 12 December 2014Heracles 1–1 DordrechtEredivisie
Leading scorers: Dordrecht and Heracles
Dordrecht
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Heracles
GoalsAssists
- J. N'djoli122
- T. van Gilst82
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
A clear gap in the ratings
Dordrecht carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.67 for Heracles.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for Dordrecht and 2.23 for Heracles.
Dordrecht rate 0.47 in attack and 2.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heracles rate 0.89 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dordrecht a 0% chance of the title and Heracles 82.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heracles the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Dordrecht against 2.23 for Heracles. Dordrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.29 for Heracles.
How the model reaches 60% for Heracles to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Heracles to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Dordrecht's ratings add 14 points and Heracles's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Dordrecht's ratings43%+14
- Heracles's ratings60%+17
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dordrecht at home · Heracles away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Dordrecht 12, Heracles 12.
Dordrecht score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Heracles have let in 2 there.
Heracles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Dordrecht have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Dordrecht
- at Helmond Sport20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
- vs Vitesse27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 31%
- at MVV4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
Heracles
- vs Jong PSV U2120 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 67%
- at Jong Ajax27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 56%
- vs Emmen4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 65%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.