Roda
vs
FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Roda 1–0 FC Volendam
The model makes it 41% Roda, 29% draw, 30% FC Volendam — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Roda 1.35, FC Volendam 1.06.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Roda's rating is built from 53 Eerste Divisie matches and FC Volendam's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Roda are 5th on 25 points from 13 games; FC Volendam are 7th on 19 points from 13 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Roda are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Jong AZ.
- FC Volendam have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to De Graafschap.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2025, ended FC Volendam 3–2 Roda.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Roda vs FC Volendam
Has the model earned this number?
Roda at 41%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Roda vs FC Volendam
Roda
Eerste Divisie
- W2-1Jong AZ30 October 2026
- W3-2away to Almere City FC23 October 2026
- W2-1away to Jong Utrecht19 October 2026
- D1-1Jong PSV U219 October 2026
- L0-2away to VVV Venlo4 October 2026
FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie
- L1-2De Graafschap30 October 2026
- W6-2Jong Utrecht23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Waalwijk18 October 2026
- W2-0Vitesse9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC3 October 2026
What these results say
- Roda conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Roda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Roda.
- FC Volendam scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Volendam conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Roda | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 25 |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 22 | +8 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Roda vs FC Volendam
- 2 May 2025FC Volendam 3–2 RodaEerste Divisie
- 29 November 2024Roda 1–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 7 February 2022Roda 1–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 13 September 2021FC Volendam 2–2 RodaEerste Divisie
- 6 March 2021FC Volendam 3–4 RodaEerste Divisie
- 4 October 2020Roda 1–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Roda and FC Volendam
Roda
GoalsAssists
- A. van den Hurk60
FC Volendam
GoalsAssists
- H. Veerman132
- R. Niemeijer52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Roda carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.41 for FC Volendam.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Roda and 1.06 for FC Volendam.
Roda rate 0.48 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Volendam rate 0.71 and 1.73.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Roda a 2% chance of the title and FC Volendam 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Roda the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Roda against 1.06 for FC Volendam. Roda's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.73 for FC Volendam.
How the model reaches 41% for Roda to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Roda to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Roda's ratings take away 3 points and FC Volendam's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Roda's ratings40%−3
- FC Volendam's ratings41%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Roda at home · FC Volendam away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Roda 13, FC Volendam 13.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Roda
- at FC OSS20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- vs De Graafschap29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
- at FC Eindhoven6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- vs Den Bosch11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
FC Volendam
- vs Jong Ajax20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 59%
- vs FC Eindhoven29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 57%
- at NAC Breda6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 31%
- at Heracles11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 17%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.