NAC Breda
vs
Emmen
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: NAC Breda 2–1 Emmen
The model makes it 46% NAC Breda, 26% draw, 28% Emmen — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NAC Breda 1.75, Emmen 1.25.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. NAC Breda's rating is built from 12 Eerste Divisie matches and Emmen's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- NAC Breda are 6th on 21 points from 12 games; Emmen are 3rd on 25 points from 12 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- NAC Breda are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Heracles.
- Emmen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Vitesse.
- Last 6 meetings: Emmen 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 May 2024, ended Emmen 0–3 NAC Breda.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NAC Breda vs Emmen
Has the model earned this number?
NAC Breda at 46%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NAC Breda vs Emmen
NAC Breda
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1Heracles23 October 2026
- W2-0away to Helmond Sport16 October 2026
- W1-0MVV9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Vitesse3 October 2026
- W4-2FC Eindhoven26 September 2026
Emmen
Eerste Divisie
- W2-0away to Vitesse23 October 2026
- W2-1Almere City FC17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Dordrecht9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Waalwijk3 October 2026
- W1-0FC OSS26 September 2026
What these results say
- NAC Breda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- NAC Breda scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Emmen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Emmen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Emmen won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | NAC Breda | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 21 |
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NAC Breda vs Emmen
- 25 May 2024Emmen 0–3 NAC BredaEredivisie
- 21 May 2024NAC Breda 1–1 EmmenEredivisie
- 13 January 2024Emmen 2–3 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 22 September 2023NAC Breda 1–3 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 3 June 2023Emmen 2–0 NAC BredaEredivisie
- 31 May 2023NAC Breda 1–2 EmmenEredivisie
Leading scorers: NAC Breda and Emmen
NAC Breda
GoalsAssists
- C. Brym70
Emmen
GoalsAssists
- J. Cooper93
- F. Quispel72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NAC Breda carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.34 for Emmen.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for NAC Breda and 1.25 for Emmen.
NAC Breda rate 0.63 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Emmen rate 0.62 and 1.71.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Emmen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NAC Breda a 0.7% chance of the title and Emmen 2.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NAC Breda the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for NAC Breda against 1.25 for Emmen. NAC Breda's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.71 for Emmen.
How the model reaches 46% for NAC Breda to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for NAC Breda to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, NAC Breda's ratings add 1 point and Emmen's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- NAC Breda's ratings46%+1
- Emmen's ratings46%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
NAC Breda at home · Emmen away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: NAC Breda 12, Emmen 12.
NAC Breda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Emmen have let in 4 there.
Emmen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); NAC Breda have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
NAC Breda
- at Almere City FC20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
- vs Den Bosch27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
- vs FC Volendam6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
Emmen
- at Jong Utrecht20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
- vs Helmond Sport28 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 54%
- at Heracles4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 15%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.