Regular Season - 17 · 27 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC Eerste Divisie prediction

Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Utrecht

Our model says: Jong Utrecht 1–2 Almere City FC

The model makes it 29% Jong Utrecht, 26% draw, 45% Almere City FC — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Jong Utrecht 1.28, Almere City FC 1.75.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.

One-sided: Almere City FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Jong Utrecht's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Almere City FC's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Jong Utrecht are 19th on 11 points from 14 games; Almere City FC are 3rd on 28 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Jong Utrecht have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Den Bosch.
  • Almere City FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Jong AZ.
  • Last 6 meetings: Almere City FC 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Jong Utrecht 2–3 Almere City FC.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC

60%
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Jong Utrecht win Draw Almere City FC win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 0–18%
  4. 0–27%
  5. 2–17%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 1–06%

Scores read Jong Utrecht first; the other scorelines share the remaining 46%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Almere City FC at 45%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC

Jong Utrecht

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1away to Den Bosch7 November 2026
  • W3-2Dordrecht2 November 2026
  • L2-6away to FC Volendam23 October 2026
  • L1-2Roda19 October 2026
  • L1-2away to De Graafschap9 October 2026

Almere City FC

Eerste Divisie

  • W3-1away to Jong AZ6 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Waalwijk30 October 2026
  • L2-3Roda23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Emmen17 October 2026
  • W3-0FC Eindhoven9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Jong Utrecht scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jong Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Jong Utrecht.
  • Almere City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Almere City FC had three goals or more.
  • Almere City FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Jong Utrecht143292334-1111
3Almere City FC149143014+1628

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC

  • 27 February 2026Jong Utrecht 2–3 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 26 September 2025Almere City FC 4–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 2 August 2025Almere City FC 3–1 Jong UtrechtFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 April 2023Almere City FC 1–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 7 October 2022Jong Utrecht 0–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 7 March 2022Jong Utrecht 1–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC

Jong Utrecht

GoalsAssists

  • E. C. Owen60

Almere City FC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Druijf93

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jong Utrecht a 0% chance of the title and Almere City FC 5.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Jong Utrecht Almere City FC
0.56 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
2.07 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.4
1.28 Model expected goals (this match) 1.75

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Almere City FC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Jong Utrecht against 1.75 for Almere City FC. Jong Utrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.4 for Almere City FC.

Jong Utrecht carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.5 for Almere City FC.

How the model reaches 45% for Almere City FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Almere City FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Jong Utrecht's ratings add 8 points and Almere City FC's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Jong Utrecht's ratings37%+8
  4. Almere City FC's ratings45%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Jong UtrechtAlmere City FC
14Matches14
3W 2D 9LRecord9W 1D 4L
23 1.6 per gameGoals scored30 2.1 per game
34 2.4 per gameGoals conceded14 1.0 per game
1 of 14Clean sheets5 of 14
1 of 14Failed to score1 of 14
–Penalties scored1 of 3
17 1.2 per gameYellow cards17 1.2 per game
2Red cards0
4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

Jong Utrecht at home · Almere City FC away

7Played8
2W 1D 4LRecord5W 1D 2L
13–17Goals for – against20–9
1 of 7Clean sheets2 of 8

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong Utrecht 14, Almere City FC 14.

Jong Utrecht scored 554432
Almere City FC conceded 220452
Almere City FC scored 4323710
Jong Utrecht conceded 548745

Almere City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Jong Utrecht have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Jong Utrecht

  • at Helmond Sport4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
  • vs Waalwijk11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
  • at VVV Venlo19 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 19%

Almere City FC

  • at FC OSS4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
  • vs VVV Venlo11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 50%
  • vs Vitesse18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 51%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.