Groningen
vs
Willem II
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Groningen 3–1 Willem II
The model makes it 76% Groningen, 14% draw, 10% Willem II — fair odds of 1.32, 7.14 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Groningen 3.44, Willem II 1.02.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,130 settled matches.
One-sided: Groningen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Groningen's rating is built from 47 Eredivisie matches and Willem II's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Groningen are 9th on 15 points from 12 games; Willem II are bottom on 3 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- Groningen are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to AZ Alkmaar.
- Willem II have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to PEC Zwolle.
- Last 6 meetings: Groningen 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2025, ended Willem II 1–3 Groningen.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Groningen vs Willem II
Has the model earned this number?
Groningen at 76%: of 503 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.6% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Groningen vs Willem II
Groningen
Eredivisie
- L3-4away to AZ Alkmaar8 November 2026
- L2-3Sparta Rotterdam1 November 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen25 October 2026
- L2-5Ajax18 October 2026
- W5-1away to Excelsior11 October 2026
Willem II
Eredivisie
- D1-1PEC Zwolle6 November 2026
- L0-7away to PSV Eindhoven31 October 2026
- L1-6Cambuur24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sparta Rotterdam17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Utrecht11 October 2026
What these results say
- Groningen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Groningen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Groningen had three goals or more.
- Willem II did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Willem II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Willem II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 15 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Willem II
- 15 February 2025Willem II 1–3 GroningenEredivisie
- 30 November 2024Groningen 2–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 26 April 2024Willem II 1–1 GroningenEerste Divisie
- 19 December 2023Willem II 1–3 GroningenKNVB Beker
- 27 August 2023Groningen 0–0 Willem IIEerste Divisie
- 26 February 2022Groningen 1–0 Willem IIEredivisie
Leading scorers: Groningen and Willem II
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- B. Willumsson91
- T. van Bergen83
Willem II
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Groningen the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.44 expected goals for Groningen against 1.02 for Willem II. Groningen's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.91 for Willem II.
How the model reaches 76% for Groningen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Groningen to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Groningen's ratings add 18 points and Willem II's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 76%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- Groningen's ratings62%+18
- Willem II's ratings76%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Groningen at home · Willem II away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
GroningenWillem II
Groningen are 9th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 2nd and 9th so far); Willem II are 18th after 12 (between 15th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Groningen 12, Willem II 12.
Groningen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (8 goals); Willem II have let in 4 there.
Willem II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Groningen have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Groningen
- at Telstar4 Dec · Eredivisiewin 36%
- vs Feyenoord13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 28%
- at Cambuur20 Dec · Eredivisiewin 33%
- vs GO Ahead Eagles10 Jan · Eredivisiewin 52%
Willem II
- vs Feyenoord5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 8%
- vs ADO Den Haag13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 23%
- at Telstar18 Dec · Eredivisiewin 12%
- vs Ajax9 Jan · Eredivisiewin 8%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.