NAC Breda
vs
Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: NAC Breda 1–0 Den Bosch
The model makes it 49% NAC Breda, 27% draw, 24% Den Bosch — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: NAC Breda 1.63, Den Bosch 0.99.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. NAC Breda's rating is built from 14 Eerste Divisie matches and Den Bosch's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- NAC Breda are 4th on 25 points from 14 games; Den Bosch are 9th on 19 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- NAC Breda are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Dordrecht.
- Den Bosch are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Jong Utrecht.
- Last 6 meetings: NAC Breda 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2024, ended Den Bosch 2–2 NAC Breda.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NAC Breda vs Den Bosch
Has the model earned this number?
NAC Breda at 49%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NAC Breda vs Den Bosch
NAC Breda
Eerste Divisie
- D0-0away to Dordrecht6 November 2026
- W2-0away to Jong PSV U212 November 2026
- D1-1Heracles23 October 2026
- W2-0away to Helmond Sport16 October 2026
- W1-0MVV9 October 2026
Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1Jong Utrecht7 November 2026
- W5-0away to Emmen1 November 2026
- D2-2MVV23 October 2026
- W2-1FC OSS16 October 2026
- W1-0away to Jong AZ9 October 2026
What these results say
- NAC Breda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for NAC Breda had two goals or fewer.
- NAC Breda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Den Bosch went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Den Bosch scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NAC Breda | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 25 |
| 9 | Den Bosch | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 22 | +2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NAC Breda vs Den Bosch
- 19 April 2024Den Bosch 2–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 24 November 2023NAC Breda 1–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 7 April 2023NAC Breda 2–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 28 October 2022Den Bosch 3–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 13 February 2022NAC Breda 2–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 3 December 2021Den Bosch 0–5 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: NAC Breda and Den Bosch
NAC Breda
GoalsAssists
- C. Brym90
Den Bosch
GoalsAssists
- S. Karlsson Grach60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NAC Breda a 0.6% chance of the title and Den Bosch 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NAC Breda the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for NAC Breda against 0.99 for Den Bosch. NAC Breda's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.7 for Den Bosch.
How the model reaches 49% for NAC Breda to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for NAC Breda to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, NAC Breda's ratings add 3 points and Den Bosch's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- NAC Breda's ratings46%+3
- Den Bosch's ratings49%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
NAC Breda at home · Den Bosch away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: NAC Breda 14, Den Bosch 14.
NAC Breda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Den Bosch have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
NAC Breda
- vs FC Volendam6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Jong AZ11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- vs Roda18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 45%
Den Bosch
- vs Jong Ajax4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 49%
- at Roda11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- at Dordrecht18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.