MVV
vs
Jong PSV U21
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: MVV 1–0 Jong PSV U21
The model makes it 36% MVV, 30% draw, 34% Jong PSV U21 — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: MVV 1.21, Jong PSV U21 1.14.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.
A tight game: MVV and Jong PSV U21 are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. MVV's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Jong PSV U21's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- MVV are 8th on 20 points from 14 games; Jong PSV U21 are 13th on 17 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- MVV have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Emmen.
- Jong PSV U21 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to VVV Venlo.
- Last 6 meetings: MVV 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended MVV 2–1 Jong PSV U21.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MVV vs Jong PSV U21
Has the model earned this number?
MVV at 36%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into MVV vs Jong PSV U21
MVV
Eerste Divisie
- W2-0away to Emmen8 November 2026
- L1-2VVV Venlo31 October 2026
- D2-2away to Den Bosch23 October 2026
- L1-5Heracles18 October 2026
- L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026
Jong PSV U21
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1away to VVV Venlo6 November 2026
- L0-2NAC Breda2 November 2026
- W2-1away to FC Eindhoven23 October 2026
- L0-1Dordrecht19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Roda9 October 2026
What these results say
- MVV failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- MVV scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- MVV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jong PSV U21 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jong PSV U21 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jong PSV U21 had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | MVV | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 20 |
| 13 | Jong PSV U21 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: MVV vs Jong PSV U21
- 6 February 2026MVV 2–1 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 29 September 2025Jong PSV U21 2–2 MVVEerste Divisie
- 14 April 2025Jong PSV U21 3–2 MVVEerste Divisie
- 30 August 2024MVV 3–2 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 19 February 2024MVV 3–3 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 6 October 2023Jong PSV U21 2–3 MVVEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: MVV and Jong PSV U21
MVV
GoalsAssists
- O. Dumont51
Jong PSV U21
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MVV the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for MVV against 1.14 for Jong PSV U21. MVV's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.65 for Jong PSV U21.
How the model reaches 36% for MVV to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MVV to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, MVV's ratings take away 2 points and Jong PSV U21's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- MVV's ratings40%−2
- Jong PSV U21's ratings36%−4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
MVV at home · Jong PSV U21 away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: MVV 14, Jong PSV U21 14.
MVV score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Jong PSV U21 have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
MVV
- vs Dordrecht4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Jong Ajax11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
- vs FC OSS18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
Jong PSV U21
- vs De Graafschap7 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
- at Emmen11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- vs FC Eindhoven21 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.