Regular Season - 25 · 1 November 2026, 18:15 UTC

Valerenga vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction

Intility Arena, Oslo

Our model says: Valerenga 1–2 Tromso

The model makes it 34% Valerenga, 24% draw, 42% Tromso — fair odds of 2.94, 4.17 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Valerenga 1.68, Tromso 1.94.

Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Edge to Tromso: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Key facts

  • Valerenga are 14th on 23 points from 22 games; Tromso are 3rd on 39 points from 22 games — Eliteserien.
  • Valerenga have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to KFUM Oslo.
  • Tromso have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fredrikstad.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 July 2026, ended Tromso 4–0 Valerenga.

More Eliteserien predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Valerenga vs Tromso

70%
Both teams to score
70%
Over 2.5 goals
30%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Valerenga win Draw Tromso win
  1. 1–19%
  2. 1–28%
  3. 2–17%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–35%
  6. 0–25%
  7. 0–15%

Scores read Valerenga first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 54%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Tromso at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Valerenga vs Tromso

Valerenga

  • L1-2away to KFUM Oslo12 October 2026
  • D1-1Fredrikstad20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Lillestrom12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF6 September 2026
  • L3-4Molde30 August 2026

Tromso

  • D1-1away to Fredrikstad11 October 2026
  • W3-2Ham-Kam20 September 2026
  • L3-5away to Rosenborg12 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Kristiansund BK6 September 2026
  • D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Valerenga did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Valerenga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Valerenga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Tromso failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Tromso conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Valerenga2265113545-1023
3Tromso2211654130+1139

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Tromso

  • 11 July 2026Tromso 4–0 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 4 October 2025Valerenga 1–0 TromsoEliteserien
  • 31 May 2025Tromso 2–1 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 15 March 2025Valerenga 1–4 TromsoFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 May 2024Valerenga 1–0 TromsoNM Cupen
  • 17 March 2024Valerenga 3–1 TromsoFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Valerenga and Tromso

Valerenga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Haren82

Tromso

GoalsAssists

  • H. Larsen104
  • J. Hjertø-Dahl72

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Valerenga carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.66 for Tromso. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Valerenga and 1.94 for Tromso. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Valerenga rate 0.77 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tromso rate 0.83 and 1.22.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Tromso the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Valerenga against 1.94 for Tromso. Valerenga's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.22 for Tromso.

Season stats

ValerengaTromso
22Matches22
6W 5D 11LRecord11W 6D 5L
35 1.6 per gameGoals scored41 1.9 per game
45 2.0 per gameGoals conceded30 1.4 per game
2 of 22Clean sheets9 of 22
7 of 22Failed to score6 of 22
0 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
44 2.0 per gameYellow cards29 1.3 per game
3Red cards2
4-4-2 20×Usual shape5-3-2 21×

Valerenga at home · Tromso away

11Played11
4W 2D 5LRecord4W 3D 4L
20–19Goals for – against20–21
1 of 11Clean sheets2 of 11

League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eliteserien matches this season: Valerenga 22, Tromso 22.

Valerenga scored 468358
Tromso conceded 336847
Tromso scored 5641069
Valerenga conceded 7997311

Tromso score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Valerenga have let in 7 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Valerenga

  • at Kristiansund BK7 Nov · Eliteserienwin 40%
  • vs Start21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 53%
  • at Viking29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 11%

Tromso

  • vs Bodo/Glimt8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 26%
  • vs Viking21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 28%
  • at Sandefjord29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 33%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.