Regular Season - 24 · 18 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Molde vs Start Eliteserien prediction

Aker Stadion, Molde

Our model says: Molde 2–1 Start

The model makes it 55% Molde, 24% draw, 21% Start — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: Molde 2.51, Start 1.08.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.

Model confidence: High.

Published

Key facts

  • Molde are 4th on 36 points from 21 games; Start are bottom on 16 points from 21 games — Eliteserien.
  • Molde have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Aalesund.
  • Start have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Sandefjord.
  • Last 6 meetings: Molde 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Start 1–1 Molde.

Live win probability

From kick-off
Molde55%1.82
Draw24%4.17
Start21%4.76

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Molde vs Start

61%
Both teams to score
69%
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Molde win Draw Start win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 2–09%
  3. 1–18%
  4. 3–18%
  5. 3–07%
  6. 1–07%
  7. 2–25%

Scores read Molde first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 47%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Molde at 55% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Molde vs Start

Molde

  • L1-2Aalesund19 September 2026
  • W5-1away to Ham-Kam13 September 2026
  • W2-0KFUM Oslo6 September 2026
  • W4-3away to Valerenga30 August 2026
  • W3-2Tromso16 August 2026

Start

  • L0-3away to Sandefjord20 September 2026
  • W2-0Brann13 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Aalesund4 September 2026
  • W4-1KFUM Oslo30 August 2026
  • L0-1Fredrikstad8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Molde scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Molde won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Molde conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Start conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Molde2111374432+1236
16Start2144132244-2216

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Molde vs Start

  • 19 April 2026Start 1–1 MoldeEliteserien
  • 5 August 2020Molde 5–0 StartEliteserien
  • 24 June 2020Start 2–3 MoldeEliteserien
  • 29 October 2018Start 1–3 MoldeEliteserien
  • 27 May 2018Molde 3–1 StartEliteserien
  • 17 July 2016Molde 2–2 StartEliteserien

Leading scorers: Molde and Start

Molde

  • E. Hestad8 goals2 assists
  • E. Breivik7 goals8 assists
  • K. Lonebu7 goals1 assist

Start

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Molde carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.37 for Start. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 2.51 goals for Molde and 1.08 for Start. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Molde rate 0.92 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Start rate 0.58 and 1.52.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Molde the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Molde against 1.08 for Start. Molde's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.52 for Start.

Season stats

MoldeStart
21Matches21
11W 3D 7LRecord4W 4D 13L
44 2.1 a gameGoals scored22 1.0 a game
32 1.5 a gameGoals conceded44 2.1 a game
4 of 21Clean sheets2 of 21
2 of 21Failed to score7 of 21
1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 2
41 2.0 a gameYellow cards40 1.9 a game
2Red cards3
4-2-3-1 16×Usual shape5-3-2 16×

Molde at home · Start away

11Played11
7W 1D 3LRecord1W 1D 9L
24–13Goals for – against10–29
3 of 11Clean sheets0 of 11

League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eliteserien matches this season: Molde 21, Start 21.

Molde scored 641012210
Start conceded 310641011

Molde score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); Start have let in 4 there.

Start scored 427315
Molde conceded 657716

Start score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Molde have let in 7 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Molde

  • vs Fredrikstad25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 46%
  • at Brann1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 31%
  • at Sandefjord8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 34%
  • vs Bodo/Glimt20 Nov · Eliteserienwin 29%

Start

  • vs Sandefjord25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 32%
  • vs Lillestrom1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 33%
  • at Rosenborg7 Nov · Eliteserienwin 18%
  • at Valerenga21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 27%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.