Tromso
vs
KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Tromso 2–1 KFUM Oslo
The model makes it 49% Tromso, 27% draw, 24% KFUM Oslo — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Tromso 2.04, KFUM Oslo 1.10.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Tromso are 3rd on 38 points from 21 games; KFUM Oslo are 10th on 25 points from 21 games — Eliteserien.
- Tromso have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Ham-Kam.
- KFUM Oslo have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win away to Sarpsborg 08 FF.
- Last 6 meetings: Tromso 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 May 2026, ended KFUM Oslo 0–0 Tromso.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Tromso vs KFUM Oslo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tromso at 49% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tromso vs KFUM Oslo
Tromso
- W3-2Ham-Kam20 September 2026
- L3-5away to Rosenborg12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Kristiansund BK6 September 2026
- D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Molde16 August 2026
KFUM Oslo
- W3-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF18 September 2026
- W2-1Aalesund13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Molde6 September 2026
- L1-4away to Start30 August 2026
- D1-1Lillestrom15 August 2026
What these results say
- Tromso failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tromso conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- KFUM Oslo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- KFUM Oslo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for KFUM Oslo.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 29 | +11 | 38 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tromso vs KFUM Oslo
- 29 May 2026KFUM Oslo 0–0 TromsoEliteserien
- 7 March 2026KFUM Oslo 2–1 TromsoNM Cupen
- 31 August 2025Tromso 2–0 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 11 May 2025KFUM Oslo 1–3 TromsoEliteserien
- 8 May 2025Tromso 0–1 KFUM OsloNM Cupen
- 18 August 2024KFUM Oslo 0–1 TromsoEliteserien
Leading scorers: Tromso and KFUM Oslo
Tromso
- H. Larsen10 goals3 assists
- J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists
KFUM Oslo
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Tromso carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.47 for KFUM Oslo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for Tromso and 1.10 for KFUM Oslo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tromso rate 0.85 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KFUM Oslo rate 0.62 and 1.34.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tromso the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Tromso against 1.10 for KFUM Oslo. Tromso's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.34 for KFUM Oslo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tromso at home · KFUM Oslo away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Tromso 21, KFUM Oslo 21.
Tromso score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); KFUM Oslo have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Tromso
- at Viking25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 22%
- at Valerenga1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 40%
- vs Bodo/Glimt8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 29%
- vs Viking21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 30%
KFUM Oslo
- at Kristiansund BK25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 36%
- vs Ham-Kam1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 43%
- at Viking8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 16%
- vs Brann22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.