Sarpsborg 08 FF
vs
Rosenborg
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–2 Rosenborg
The model makes it 32% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 28% draw, 40% Rosenborg — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.31, Rosenborg 1.63.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Sarpsborg 08 FF are 9th on 25 points from 21 games; Rosenborg are 5th on 33 points from 21 games — Eliteserien.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to KFUM Oslo.
- Rosenborg are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-1 win away to Kristiansund BK.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 1 win each, 3 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Rosenborg 2–1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosenborg at 40% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- L1-3KFUM Oslo18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad13 September 2026
- D2-2Valerenga6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tromso30 August 2026
- L1-2Sandefjord16 August 2026
Rosenborg
- W3-1away to Kristiansund BK19 September 2026
- W5-3Tromso12 September 2026
- W4-0Ham-Kam5 September 2026
- L2-4away to Bodo/Glimt30 August 2026
- W2-1Viking14 August 2026
What these results say
- Sarpsborg 08 FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rosenborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Rosenborg had three goals or more.
- Rosenborg won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 25 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 30 | +9 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg
- 12 April 2026Rosenborg 2–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 5 October 2025Rosenborg 2–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 18 July 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–2 RosenborgEliteserien
- 25 June 2025Rosenborg 2–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFNM Cupen
- 23 November 2024Rosenborg 1–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
Leading scorers: Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- D. Karlsbakk7 goals
Rosenborg
- Amin Chiakha13 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.75 for Rosenborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.63 for Rosenborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarpsborg 08 FF rate 0.62 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rosenborg rate 0.96 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosenborg the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.63 for Rosenborg. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.18 for Rosenborg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sarpsborg 08 FF at home · Rosenborg away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Sarpsborg 08 FF 21, Rosenborg 21.
Sarpsborg 08 FF score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Rosenborg have let in 4 there.
Rosenborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Sarpsborg 08 FF have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- vs Aalesund25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 42%
- vs Kristiansund BK1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 46%
- at Ham-Kam8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 35%
- vs Lillestrom22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 38%
Rosenborg
- at Ham-Kam24 Oct · Eliteserienwin 46%
- at Fredrikstad31 Oct · Eliteserienwin 39%
- vs Start7 Nov · Eliteserienwin 59%
- at Aalesund22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.