Sarpsborg 08 FF
vs
Kristiansund BK
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–0 Kristiansund BK
The model makes it 56% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 25% draw, 19% Kristiansund BK — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.95, Kristiansund BK 0.93.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Sarpsborg 08 FF: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Sarpsborg 08 FF are 9th on 28 points from 22 games; Kristiansund BK are 15th on 19 points from 23 games — Eliteserien.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Aalesund.
- Kristiansund BK are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Aalesund.
- Last 6 meetings: Kristiansund BK 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Kristiansund BK 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarpsborg 08 FF at 56% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- W4-2away to Aalesund11 October 2026
- L1-3KFUM Oslo18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad13 September 2026
- D2-2Valerenga6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tromso30 August 2026
Kristiansund BK
- L1-4Aalesund17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Bodo/Glimt10 October 2026
- L1-3Rosenborg19 September 2026
- L1-8away to Viking13 September 2026
- W2-0Tromso6 September 2026
What these results say
- Sarpsborg 08 FF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kristiansund BK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kristiansund BK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kristiansund BK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 28 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 47 | -24 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK
- 18 July 2026Kristiansund BK 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 25 February 2026Kristiansund BK 0–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFFriendlies Clubs
- 25 August 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 13 July 2025Kristiansund BK 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 15 September 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–2 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 2 June 2024Kristiansund BK 3–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
Leading scorers: Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK
Sarpsborg 08 FF
GoalsAssists
- D. Karlsbakk70
Kristiansund BK
GoalsAssists
- L. Alvheim110
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.31 for Kristiansund BK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.93 for Kristiansund BK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarpsborg 08 FF rate 0.68 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kristiansund BK rate 0.54 and 1.60.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 0.93 for Kristiansund BK. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.6 for Kristiansund BK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sarpsborg 08 FF at home · Kristiansund BK away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Sarpsborg 08 FF 22, Kristiansund BK 23.
Sarpsborg 08 FF score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Kristiansund BK have let in 9 there.
Kristiansund BK score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Sarpsborg 08 FF have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- at Ham-Kam8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 37%
- vs Lillestrom22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 43%
- at Start29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 42%
Kristiansund BK
- vs Valerenga7 Nov · Eliteserienwin 35%
- vs Sandefjord22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 27%
- at Brann29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 16%
- vs Lillestrom6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.