Valerenga
vs
Brann
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Valerenga 1–2 Brann
The model makes it 33% Valerenga, 26% draw, 41% Brann — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Valerenga 1.69, Brann 2.01.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Valerenga are 12th on 23 points from 21 games; Brann are 7th on 29 points from 21 games — Eliteserien.
- Valerenga have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Fredrikstad.
- Brann have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Bodo/Glimt.
- Last 6 meetings: Brann 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Brann 2–3 Valerenga.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Valerenga vs Brann
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brann at 41% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Valerenga vs Brann
Valerenga
- D1-1Fredrikstad20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Lillestrom12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF6 September 2026
- L3-4Molde30 August 2026
- D5-5away to Aalesund16 August 2026
Brann
- W2-1Bodo/Glimt20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Start13 September 2026
- L1-2Lillestrom5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sandefjord30 August 2026
- W3-0Ham-Kam16 August 2026
What these results say
- Valerenga did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Valerenga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Valerenga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Valerenga | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 23 |
| 7 | Brann | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 32 | +7 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Brann
- 26 July 2026Brann 2–3 ValerengaEliteserien
- 13 September 2025Brann 3–2 ValerengaEliteserien
- 3 May 2025Valerenga 2–4 BrannEliteserien
- 22 March 2025Brann 2–1 ValerengaFriendlies Clubs
- 27 February 2024Brann 3–0 ValerengaFriendlies Clubs
- 8 October 2023Valerenga 1–2 BrannEliteserien
Leading scorers: Valerenga and Brann
Valerenga
- L. Haren8 goals2 assists
- C. Lange6 goals1 assist
Brann
- N. Holm6 goals3 assists
- K. Ingason6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Valerenga carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.69 for Brann. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Valerenga and 2.01 for Brann. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valerenga rate 0.80 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brann rate 0.85 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brann the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Valerenga against 2.01 for Brann. Valerenga's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.18 for Brann.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Valerenga at home · Brann away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Valerenga 21, Brann 21.
Brann score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Valerenga have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Valerenga
- at Bodo/Glimt24 Oct · Eliteserienwin 14%
- vs Tromso1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 34%
- at Kristiansund BK7 Nov · Eliteserienwin 37%
- vs Start21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 47%
Brann
- at Kauno Žalgiris22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 42%
- at Lillestrom25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 37%
- vs Molde1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.