Brann
vs
Molde
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Brann 2–1 Molde
The model makes it 44% Brann, 25% draw, 31% Molde — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Brann 1.91, Molde 1.52.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Brann are 7th on 29 points from 22 games; Molde are 4th on 37 points from 22 games — Eliteserien.
- Brann have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Viking.
- Molde have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Lillestrom.
- Last 6 meetings: Molde 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Molde 1–2 Brann.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Brann vs Molde
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brann at 44% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Brann vs Molde
Brann
- L0-2Viking9 October 2026
- W2-1Bodo/Glimt20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Start13 September 2026
- L1-2Lillestrom5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sandefjord30 August 2026
Molde
- D2-2away to Lillestrom11 October 2026
- L1-2Aalesund19 September 2026
- W5-1away to Ham-Kam13 September 2026
- W2-0KFUM Oslo6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Valerenga30 August 2026
What these results say
- Brann failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brann conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Molde scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Molde conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Molde had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 34 | +5 | 29 |
| 4 | Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 34 | +12 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Brann vs Molde
- 18 July 2026Molde 1–2 BrannEliteserien
- 22 November 2025Molde 4–0 BrannEliteserien
- 29 May 2025Brann 0–3 MoldeEliteserien
- 23 November 2024Molde 2–1 BrannEliteserien
- 26 May 2024Brann 1–3 MoldeEliteserien
- 19 March 2024Molde 1–0 BrannFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Brann and Molde
Brann
GoalsAssists
- N. Holm63
- K. Ingason62
Molde
GoalsAssists
- E. Breivik88
- E. Hestad82
- K. Lonebu72
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Brann carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.67 for Molde. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Brann and 1.52 for Molde. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brann rate 0.81 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Molde rate 0.91 and 1.32.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Molde, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brann the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Brann against 1.52 for Molde. Brann's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.32 for Molde.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Brann at home · Molde away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Brann 22, Molde 22.
Brann score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Molde have let in 7 there.
Molde score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); Brann have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Brann
- at St. Truiden5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 22%
- at Fredrikstad8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 37%
Molde
- at Sandefjord8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 34%
- vs Bodo/Glimt20 Nov · Eliteserienwin 27%
- at Rosenborg28 Nov · Eliteserienwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.