Sandefjord
vs
Lillestrom
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Sandefjord 1–0 Lillestrom
The model makes it 40% Sandefjord, 31% draw, 29% Lillestrom — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sandefjord 1.32, Lillestrom 0.97.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Sandefjord are 11th on 23 points from 21 games; Lillestrom are 6th on 32 points from 21 games — Eliteserien.
- Sandefjord have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Start.
- Lillestrom have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Viking.
- Last 6 meetings: Sandefjord 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Lillestrom 3–1 Sandefjord.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sandefjord vs Lillestrom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sandefjord at 40% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sandefjord vs Lillestrom
Sandefjord
- W3-0Start20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Bodo/Glimt14 September 2026
- D1-1Viking4 September 2026
- D0-0Brann30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF16 August 2026
Lillestrom
- L0-3away to Viking20 September 2026
- W2-0Valerenga12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
- L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
- D1-1away to KFUM Oslo15 August 2026
What these results say
- Sandefjord scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lillestrom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lillestrom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sandefjord | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sandefjord vs Lillestrom
- 16 May 2026Lillestrom 3–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 23 January 2026Lillestrom 1–2 SandefjordFriendlies Clubs
- 23 November 2024Lillestrom 0–3 SandefjordEliteserien
- 21 April 2024Sandefjord 0–1 LillestromEliteserien
- 16 February 2024Lillestrom 2–2 SandefjordFriendlies Clubs
- 3 December 2023Sandefjord 1–0 LillestromEliteserien
Leading scorers: Sandefjord and Lillestrom
Sandefjord
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Lillestrom
- F. Gulbrandsen6 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sandefjord carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.55 for Lillestrom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Sandefjord and 0.97 for Lillestrom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sandefjord rate 0.62 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lillestrom rate 0.64 and 1.19.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lillestrom, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sandefjord the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Sandefjord against 0.97 for Lillestrom. Sandefjord's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.19 for Lillestrom.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sandefjord at home · Lillestrom away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Sandefjord 21, Lillestrom 21.
Sandefjord score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Lillestrom have let in 2 there.
Lillestrom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Sandefjord have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sandefjord
- at Start25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 38%
- at Aalesund31 Oct · Eliteserienwin 35%
- vs Molde8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 37%
- at Kristiansund BK22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 39%
Lillestrom
- vs Real Sociedad22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
- vs Brann25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 34%
- at Start1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.