Regular Season - 25 · 1 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam Eliteserien prediction

KFUM Arena, Oslo

Our model says: KFUM Oslo 2–1 Ham-Kam

The model makes it 46% KFUM Oslo, 26% draw, 28% Ham-Kam — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: KFUM Oslo 1.73, Ham-Kam 1.25.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Key facts

  • KFUM Oslo are 10th on 28 points from 22 games; Ham-Kam are 11th on 26 points from 23 games — Eliteserien.
  • KFUM Oslo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Valerenga.
  • Ham-Kam have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Bodo/Glimt.
  • Last 6 meetings: Ham-Kam 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Ham-Kam 4–0 KFUM Oslo.

More Eliteserien predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam

59%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

KFUM Oslo win Draw Ham-Kam win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read KFUM Oslo first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 45%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts KFUM Oslo at 46% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam

KFUM Oslo

  • W2-1Valerenga12 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF18 September 2026
  • W2-1Aalesund13 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Molde6 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Start30 August 2026

Ham-Kam

  • L0-2Bodo/Glimt17 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Start11 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Tromso20 September 2026
  • L1-5Molde13 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Rosenborg5 September 2026

What these results say

  • KFUM Oslo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • KFUM Oslo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for KFUM Oslo had three goals or more.
  • Ham-Kam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ham-Kam failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Ham-Kam had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10KFUM Oslo2284102736-928
11Ham-Kam2375113348-1526

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam

  • 19 April 2026Ham-Kam 4–0 KFUM OsloEliteserien
  • 22 August 2025KFUM Oslo 2–2 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • 2 May 2025Ham-Kam 0–0 KFUM OsloEliteserien
  • 1 December 2024Ham-Kam 0–2 KFUM OsloEliteserien
  • 21 June 2024Ham-Kam 3–2 KFUM OsloFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 April 2024KFUM Oslo 1–1 Ham-KamEliteserien

Leading scorers: KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam

KFUM Oslo

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.

Ham-Kam

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ofkir62

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

KFUM Oslo carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.44 for Ham-Kam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.25 for Ham-Kam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

KFUM Oslo rate 0.62 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ham-Kam rate 0.68 and 1.56.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives KFUM Oslo the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for KFUM Oslo against 1.25 for Ham-Kam. KFUM Oslo's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.56 for Ham-Kam.

Season stats

KFUM OsloHam-Kam
22Matches23
8W 4D 10LRecord7W 5D 11L
27 1.2 per gameGoals scored33 1.4 per game
36 1.6 per gameGoals conceded48 2.1 per game
5 of 22Clean sheets4 of 23
5 of 22Failed to score5 of 23
2 of 3Penalties scored3 of 3
39 1.8 per gameYellow cards29 1.3 per game
5Red cards1
3-4-3 19×Usual shape5-3-2 23×

KFUM Oslo at home · Ham-Kam away

12Played12
6W 2D 4LRecord2W 3D 7L
15–14Goals for – against16–27
4 of 12Clean sheets1 of 12

League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eliteserien matches this season: KFUM Oslo 22, Ham-Kam 23.

KFUM Oslo scored 776531
Ham-Kam conceded 5491449
Ham-Kam scored 139858
KFUM Oslo conceded 469429

Ham-Kam score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); KFUM Oslo have let in 9 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

KFUM Oslo

  • at Viking8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 12%
  • vs Brann22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 33%
  • at Bodo/Glimt28 Nov · Eliteserienwin 11%

Ham-Kam

  • vs Sarpsborg 08 FF8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 36%
  • vs Fredrikstad21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 36%
  • at Lillestrom30 Nov · Eliteserienwin 26%
  • vs Sandefjord6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 34%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.