Colo Colo
vs
Universidad de Concepcion
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Colo Colo 2–0 Universidad de Concepcion
The model makes it 68% Colo Colo, 20% draw, 12% Universidad de Concepcion — fair odds of 1.47, 5.00 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Colo Colo 2.44, Universidad de Concepcion 0.74.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Colo Colo are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Colo Colo are top on 54 points from 24 games; Universidad de Concepcion are 15th on 23 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Colo Colo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat away to Coquimbo Unido.
- Universidad de Concepcion are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cobresal.
- Last 6 meetings: Colo Colo 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Universidad de Concepcion 1–2 Colo Colo.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Colo Colo at 68% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion
Colo Colo
- L2-5away to Coquimbo Unido11 October 2026
- D1-1Concepción13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Huachipato6 September 2026
- W5-1Audax Italiano30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Universidad de Chile23 August 2026
Universidad de Concepcion
- D1-1away to Cobresal10 October 2026
- L0-2Huachipato2 October 2026
- L1-2away to Palestino6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Coquimbo Unido2 September 2026
- W2-1Universidad de Chile30 August 2026
What these results say
- Colo Colo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colo Colo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Colo Colo.
- Universidad de Concepcion conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universidad de Concepcion failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 54 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion
- 26 April 2026Universidad de Concepcion 1–2 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 17 February 2021Colo Colo 1–0 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
- 13 January 2021Universidad de Concepcion 1–1 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 29 February 2020Colo Colo 2–2 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
- 15 September 2019Universidad de Concepcion 3–1 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 22 February 2019Colo Colo 1–0 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
Leading scorers: Colo Colo and Universidad de Concepcion
Colo Colo
GoalsAssists
- J. Correa135
- M. Romero81
- L. Hernández74
Universidad de Concepcion
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Colo Colo carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.18 for Universidad de Concepcion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.44 goals for Colo Colo and 0.74 for Universidad de Concepcion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Colo Colo rate 0.89 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universidad de Concepcion rate 0.41 and 1.64.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Colo Colo a 93.8% chance of the title and Universidad de Concepcion 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colo Colo the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Colo Colo against 0.74 for Universidad de Concepcion. Colo Colo's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.64 for Universidad de Concepcion.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Colo Colo at home · Universidad de Concepcion away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Colo Colo 24, Universidad de Concepcion 24.
Colo Colo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (14 goals); Universidad de Concepcion have let in 5 there.
Universidad de Concepcion score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Colo Colo have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Colo Colo
- at Nublense8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
- vs Universidad Catolica22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
- vs Deportes La Serena29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 63%
- at Cobresal6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 46%
Universidad de Concepcion
- vs O'Higgins8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Nublense22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- at Union La Calera29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Universidad Catolica6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.