Start
vs
Lillestrom
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Start 1–2 Lillestrom
The model makes it 32% Start, 27% draw, 41% Lillestrom — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Start 1.28, Lillestrom 1.51.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Lillestrom: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Start are bottom on 16 points from 22 games; Lillestrom are 6th on 33 points from 22 games — Eliteserien.
- Start have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Ham-Kam.
- Lillestrom have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Molde.
- Last 6 meetings: Lillestrom 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Lillestrom 3–1 Start.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Start vs Lillestrom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lillestrom at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Start vs Lillestrom
Start
- L2-4Ham-Kam11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Sandefjord20 September 2026
- W2-0Brann13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Aalesund4 September 2026
- W4-1KFUM Oslo30 August 2026
Lillestrom
- D2-2Molde11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Viking20 September 2026
- W2-0Valerenga12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
- L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
What these results say
- Start conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lillestrom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lillestrom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lillestrom had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Start | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 48 | -24 | 16 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Start vs Lillestrom
- 11 April 2026Lillestrom 3–1 StartEliteserien
- 16 August 2025Lillestrom 3–0 Start1. Division
- 26 July 2025Start 0–3 Lillestrom1. Division
- 16 September 2018Start 3–0 LillestromEliteserien
- 9 April 2018Lillestrom 1–0 StartEliteserien
- 23 October 2016Lillestrom 1–1 StartEliteserien
Leading scorers: Start and Lillestrom
Start
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Lillestrom
GoalsAssists
- Vá65
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Start carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.55 for Lillestrom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Start and 1.51 for Lillestrom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Start rate 0.59 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lillestrom rate 0.65 and 1.21.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lillestrom the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Start against 1.51 for Lillestrom. Start's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.21 for Lillestrom.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Start at home · Lillestrom away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Start 22, Lillestrom 22.
Start score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Lillestrom have let in 4 there.
Lillestrom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Start have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Start
- at Rosenborg7 Nov · Eliteserienwin 14%
- at Valerenga21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 24%
- vs Sarpsborg 08 FF29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 31%
Lillestrom
- vs Plzen5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
- vs Aalesund8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.