Regular Season - 15 · 22 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

Lechia Gdansk vs Odra Opole I Liga prediction

Polsat Plus Arena, Gdansk

Our model says: Lechia Gdansk 2–0 Odra Opole

The model makes it 58% Lechia Gdansk, 24% draw, 18% Odra Opole — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).

Expected goals: Lechia Gdansk 1.96, Odra Opole 0.87.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Lechia Gdansk: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Lechia Gdansk's rating is built from 14 Polish I Liga matches and Odra Opole's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Lechia Gdansk are 4th on 22 points from 14 games; Odra Opole are bottom on 12 points from 14 games — I Liga.
  • Lechia Gdansk have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Polonia Bytom.
  • Odra Opole are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 3-5 defeat at home to Unia Skierniewice.
  • Last 2 meetings: Lechia Gdansk 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 April 2024, ended Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Odra Opole.

More Polish I Liga predictions

All Polish I Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Lechia Gdansk vs Odra Opole

51%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Lechia Gdansk win Draw Odra Opole win
  1. 2–011%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 1–111%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 3–07%
  6. 3–16%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Lechia Gdansk first; the other scorelines share the remaining 37%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Lechia Gdansk at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Lechia Gdansk vs Odra Opole

Lechia Gdansk

I Liga

  • L0-1away to Polonia Bytom8 November 2026
  • W3-2Unia Skierniewice31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Puszcza Niepołomice24 October 2026
  • W2-1Arka Gdynia18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Stal Rzeszów12 October 2026

Odra Opole

I Liga

  • L3-5Unia Skierniewice6 November 2026
  • L0-3away to Polonia Bytom2 November 2026
  • L0-1Pogoń Siedlce25 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Ruch Chorzów16 October 2026
  • W1-0Miedz Legnica11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Lechia Gdansk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lechia Gdansk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Lechia Gdansk had three goals or more.
  • Odra Opole failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Odra Opole conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Lechia Gdansk147162522+322
18Odra Opole143381121-1012

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Lechia Gdansk

Chance to finish in the top two · 16% today

Win 18%
Draw 12%
Defeat 10%

Odra Opole

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 76% today

Win 67%
Draw 76%
Defeat 79%

From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Lechia Gdansk vs Odra Opole

  • 2 April 2024Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Odra OpoleI Liga
  • 16 September 2023Odra Opole 0–0 Lechia GdanskI Liga

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lechia Gdansk a 6.8% chance of the title and Odra Opole 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Lechia Gdansk v Odra Opole has moved

First published on 8 Nov at 60% / 23% / 17% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 58% / 24% / 18%: the biggest move is Lechia Gdansk's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Lechia Gdansk win58%▼ −2
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. Odra Opole win18%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Lechia Gdansk Odra Opole
0.66 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.39
1.86 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.83
1.96 Model expected goals (this match) 0.87

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lechia Gdansk the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk against 0.87 for Odra Opole. Lechia Gdansk's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.83 for Odra Opole.

Lechia Gdansk carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.09 for Odra Opole.

How the model reaches 58% for Lechia Gdansk to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lechia Gdansk to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Lechia Gdansk's ratings add 8 points and Odra Opole's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 58%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Lechia Gdansk's ratings52%+8
  4. Odra Opole's ratings58%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Lechia GdanskOdra Opole
14Matches14
7W 1D 6LRecord3W 3D 8L
25 1.8 per gameGoals scored11 0.8 per game
22 1.6 per gameGoals conceded21 1.5 per game
1 of 14Clean sheets3 of 14
4 of 14Failed to score7 of 14
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
26 1.9 per gameYellow cards31 2.2 per game
1Red cards0

Lechia Gdansk at home · Odra Opole away

7Played7
5W 0D 2LRecord1W 2D 4L
15–11Goals for – against4–12
1 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All I Liga matches this season: Lechia Gdansk 14, Odra Opole 14.

Lechia Gdansk scored 216466
Odra Opole conceded 214726
Odra Opole scored 411013
Lechia Gdansk conceded 226318

Odra Opole score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Lechia Gdansk have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Lechia Gdansk

  • at ŁKS Łódź29 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
  • vs Chrobry Głogów5 Dec · I Ligawin 49%
  • at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki12 Dec · I Ligawin 32%
  • at Warta Poznań6 Feb · I Ligawin 33%
  • vs Podbeskidzie13 Feb · I Ligawin 52%

Odra Opole

  • vs Polonia Warszawa28 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
  • at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki5 Dec · I Ligawin 21%
  • at Arka Gdynia12 Dec · I Ligawin 20%
  • vs Chrobry Głogów6 Feb · I Ligawin 33%
  • vs Puszcza Niepołomice13 Feb · I Ligawin 34%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.