Regular Season - 12 · 22 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Anderlecht vs OH Leuven Jupiler Pro League prediction

Lotto Park, Anderlecht

Our model says: Anderlecht 1–0 OH Leuven

The model makes it 50% Anderlecht, 28% draw, 22% OH Leuven — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.63, OH Leuven 0.90.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Anderlecht: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 11 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Anderlecht's rating is built from 51 Jupiler Pro League matches and OH Leuven's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.

Key facts

Anderlecht are 5th on 20 points from 11 games; OH Leuven are 10th on 12 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
Anderlecht have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Club Brugge KV.
OH Leuven are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to KV Mechelen.
Last 6 meetings: Anderlecht 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Anderlecht 5–1 OH Leuven.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Anderlecht vs OH Leuven

48%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Anderlecht win Draw OH Leuven win

1–012%
1–112%
2–011%
2–110%
0–09%
0–17%
3–06%

Scores read Anderlecht first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Anderlecht at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Anderlecht vs OH Leuven

Anderlecht

Jupiler Pro League

D1-1away to Club Brugge KV8 November 2026
W4-1KVC Westerlo31 October 2026
L0-4away to Gent25 October 2026
W2-1away to Cercle Brugge10 October 2026
W3-0Zulte Waregem19 September 2026

OH Leuven

Jupiler Pro League

W2-0KV Mechelen7 November 2026
W2-1away to St. Truiden1 November 2026
D2-2Lommel United24 October 2026
D1-1away to Union St. Gilloise11 October 2026
W2-0RAAL La Louvière19 September 2026

What these results say

Anderlecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Anderlecht conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Anderlecht had three goals or more.
OH Leuven went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
OH Leuven scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
5	Anderlecht	11	6	2	3	14	12	+2	20
10	OH Leuven	11	3	3	5	12	17	-5	12

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Anderlecht

Chance to finish in the top four · 21% today

Win 24%

Draw 18%

Defeat 17%

From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Anderlecht vs OH Leuven

28 February 2026Anderlecht 5–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
26 September 2025OH Leuven 1–1 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
1 December 2024OH Leuven 0–0 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
10 August 2024Anderlecht 1–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
21 January 2024OH Leuven 1–1 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
28 October 2023Anderlecht 5–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Anderlecht a 0.1% chance of the title and OH Leuven 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Anderlecht OH Leuven

0.94 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.71

0.98 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.05

1.63 Model expected goals (this match) 0.90

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Anderlecht the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Anderlecht against 0.90 for OH Leuven. Anderlecht's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.05 for OH Leuven.

Anderlecht carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.67 for OH Leuven.

How the model reaches 50% for Anderlecht to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Anderlecht to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Anderlecht's ratings add 5 points and OH Leuven's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 50%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage43%+6
Both sides at this match's level41%−2
Anderlecht's ratings46%+5
OH Leuven's ratings50%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

AnderlechtModelOH Leuven

Over 1.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

72%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

46%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

25%

model, this match

10%

1 of 10 games

Both teams score

30%

3 of 10 games

48%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

AnderlechtOH Leuven

11Matches11

6W 2D 3LRecord3W 3D 5L

14 1.3 per gameGoals scored12 1.1 per game

12 1.1 per gameGoals conceded17 1.5 per game

4 of 11Clean sheets2 of 11

4 of 11Failed to score3 of 11

–Penalties scored–

28 2.5 per gameYellow cards25 2.3 per game

0Red cards1

4-4-2 6×Usual shape3-4-3 7×

Anderlecht at home · OH Leuven away

5Played5

4W 1D 0LRecord1W 1D 3L

10–2Goals for – against4–9

3 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

AnderlechtOH Leuven

Anderlecht are 5th after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 5th and 11th so far); OH Leuven are 10th after 11 (between 10th and 17th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Anderlecht 11, OH Leuven 11.

Anderlecht scored 006413

OH Leuven conceded 121426

Anderlecht score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); OH Leuven have let in 1 there.

OH Leuven scored 022243

Anderlecht conceded 303114

OH Leuven score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Anderlecht have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Anderlecht

at OFI26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 42%
at Antwerp29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 39%
vs 1899 Hoffenheim10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 44%
vs Charleroi13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 40%
at Standard Liege20 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 34%

OH Leuven

vs Kortrijk27 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 56%
at Genk11 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 23%
at Antwerp18 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 30%
vs KVC Westerlo26 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 42%
at Zulte Waregem17 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 30%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.