Maribor
vs
Nafta
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Maribor 1–0 Nafta
The model makes it 53% Maribor, 26% draw, 21% Nafta — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Maribor 1.77, Nafta 0.91.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Maribor: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Maribor's rating is built from 48 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Nafta's from 17, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Maribor are 2nd on 24 points from 15 games; Nafta are 6th on 19 points from 15 games — 1. SNL.
- Maribor are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Bravo.
- Nafta are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Olimpija Ljubljana.
- Last 6 meetings: Maribor 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Nafta 2–3 Maribor.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maribor vs Nafta
Has the model earned this number?
Maribor at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Maribor vs Nafta
Maribor
1. SNL
- L1-2away to Bravo7 November 2026
- L0-1Olimpija Ljubljana31 October 2026
- L0-4away to Koper27 October 2026
- D0-0Celje18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 October 2026
Nafta
1. SNL
- D1-1Olimpija Ljubljana6 November 2026
- L0-4away to Celje1 November 2026
- D0-0Aluminij28 October 2026
- D0-0away to Mura17 October 2026
- W1-0Bravo11 October 2026
What these results say
- Maribor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maribor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nafta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nafta had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Maribor | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 6 | Nafta | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Maribor
Chance to finish in the top four · 75% today
Nafta
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our 1. SNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Maribor vs Nafta
- 30 August 2026Nafta 2–3 Maribor1. SNL
- 25 May 2025Maribor 0–1 Nafta1. SNL
- 16 April 2025Nafta 1–1 Maribor1. SNL
- 8 December 2024Maribor 4–0 Nafta1. SNL
- 22 September 2024Nafta 0–3 Maribor1. SNL
- 16 January 2024Nafta 0–3 MariborFriendlies Clubs
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maribor a 8% chance of the title and Nafta 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maribor the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Maribor against 0.91 for Nafta. Maribor's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.58 for Nafta.
How the model reaches 53% for Maribor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Maribor to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Maribor's ratings add 6 points and Nafta's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Maribor's ratings49%+6
- Nafta's ratings53%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Maribor at home · Nafta away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Maribor 15, Nafta 15.
Nafta score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Maribor have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Maribor
- at Mura28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 44%
- vs Radomlje5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 66%
- at Aluminij30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 34%
- vs Brinje-Grosuplje6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 61%
- at Celje10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 21%
Nafta
- at Radomlje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 36%
- vs Brinje-Grosuplje5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 49%
- vs Koper30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 28%
- at Bravo6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 23%
- vs Mura10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.