Regular Season - 15 · 21 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Tenerife vs Mallorca Segunda División prediction

Santa Cruz de Tenerife

Our model says: Tenerife 0–1 Mallorca

The model makes it 30% Tenerife, 31% draw, 39% Mallorca — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Tenerife 0.96, Mallorca 1.19.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Edge to Mallorca: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 7 November 2026 · updated 10 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Tenerife's rating is built from 12 Segunda División matches and Mallorca's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,076 matches.

Key facts

Tenerife are 14th on 15 points from 12 games; Mallorca are 6th on 22 points from 12 games — Segunda División.
Tenerife have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FC Andorra.
Mallorca are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cadiz.
Last 6 meetings: Mallorca 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 January 2024, ended Tenerife 0–1 Mallorca.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Tenerife vs Mallorca

44%

Both teams to score

36%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Tenerife win Draw Mallorca win

1–114%
0–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
2–16%

Scores read Tenerife first; the other scorelines share the remaining 28%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Mallorca at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Tenerife vs Mallorca

Tenerife

Segunda División

D2-2FC Andorra2 November 2026
D1-1away to Sabadell25 October 2026
D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II19 October 2026
D1-1Girona12 October 2026
L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026

Mallorca

Segunda División

W2-1Cadiz2 November 2026
D1-1away to Leganes24 October 2026
D1-1away to Eibar17 October 2026
W3-1Las Palmas11 October 2026
D0-0away to Girona4 October 2026

What these results say

Tenerife did not win any of these 5 matches.
Tenerife scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Tenerife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Mallorca went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Mallorca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Mallorca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	15	17	-2	15
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	15	7	+8	22

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Tenerife

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 15% today

Win 11%

Draw 15%

Defeat 17%

Mallorca

Chance to finish in the top two · 17% today

Win 20%

Draw 15%

Defeat 13%

From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Tenerife vs Mallorca

16 January 2024Tenerife 0–1 MallorcaCopa del Rey
19 May 2021Tenerife 0–1 MallorcaSegunda División
3 October 2020Mallorca 2–0 TenerifeSegunda División
29 August 2020Mallorca 2–0 TenerifeFriendlies Clubs
22 February 2019Tenerife 2–2 MallorcaSegunda División
6 October 2018Mallorca 4–1 TenerifeSegunda División

Leading scorers: Tenerife and Mallorca

Tenerife

GoalsAssists

Enric Gallego81

Mallorca

GoalsAssists

Fuentes71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tenerife a 0.1% chance of the title and Mallorca 5.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Tenerife Mallorca

0.68 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.68

1.46 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.91

0.96 Model expected goals (this match) 1.19

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Mallorca the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Tenerife against 1.19 for Mallorca. Tenerife's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/0.91 for Mallorca.

Tenerife carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.73 for Mallorca.

How the model reaches 39% for Mallorca to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mallorca to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Tenerife's ratings add 6 points and Mallorca's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage30%−6
Both sides at this match's level29%−1
Tenerife's ratings35%+6
Mallorca's ratings39%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

TenerifeModelMallorca

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

64%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

36%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

17%

model, this match

10%

1 of 10 games

Both teams score

70%

7 of 10 games

44%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

TenerifeMallorca

12Matches12

3W 6D 3LRecord6W 4D 2L

15 1.3 per gameGoals scored15 1.3 per game

17 1.4 per gameGoals conceded7 0.6 per game

2 of 12Clean sheets6 of 12

2 of 12Failed to score4 of 12

2 of 2Penalties scored0 of 1

31 2.6 per gameYellow cards36 3.0 per game

2Red cards1

4-4-2 9×Usual shape4-4-2 4×

Tenerife at home · Mallorca away

6Played6

2W 3D 1LRecord1W 4D 1L

7–5Goals for – against3–4

2 of 6Clean sheets3 of 6

League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

TenerifeMallorca

Tenerife are 14th after 12 Segunda División matches (between 2nd and 13th so far); Mallorca are 6th after 12 (between 1st and 12th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda División matches this season: Tenerife 12, Mallorca 12.

Tenerife scored 243330

Mallorca conceded 011211

Tenerife score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Mallorca have let in 1 there.

Mallorca scored 131335

Tenerife conceded 341135

Mallorca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Tenerife have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Tenerife

at Albacete29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
vs Eldense6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
at Valladolid13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%

Mallorca

vs Castellón29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
at Celta de Vigo II6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
vs Burgos13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.