Real Sociedad II
vs
Cadiz
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Real Sociedad II 1–0 Cadiz
The model makes it 48% Real Sociedad II, 27% draw, 25% Cadiz — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Real Sociedad II 1.71, Cadiz 1.10.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Real Sociedad II's rating is built from 55 Segunda División matches and Cadiz's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,076 matches.
Key facts
- Real Sociedad II are 17th on 12 points from 13 games; Cadiz are 20th on 10 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
- Real Sociedad II have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Sabadell.
- Cadiz have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Oviedo.
- Last 2 meetings: Real Sociedad II 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 February 2026, ended Cadiz 0–2 Real Sociedad II.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Sociedad II vs Cadiz
Has the model earned this number?
Real Sociedad II at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Real Sociedad II vs Cadiz
Real Sociedad II
Segunda División
- D0-0away to Sabadell9 November 2026
- W1-0Girona31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Las Palmas24 October 2026
- L2-4Almeria17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Celta de Vigo II10 October 2026
Cadiz
Segunda División
- L1-2Oviedo7 November 2026
- L1-2away to Mallorca2 November 2026
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Granada CF18 October 2026
- L0-1Sporting Gijon11 October 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cadiz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cadiz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Real Sociedad II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 12 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Real Sociedad II
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 20% today
Cadiz
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 56% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad II vs Cadiz
- 23 February 2026Cadiz 0–2 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 7 September 2025Real Sociedad II 3–3 CadizSegunda División
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad II and Cadiz
Real Sociedad II
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Cadiz
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Cordero52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad II the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Real Sociedad II against 1.10 for Cadiz. Real Sociedad II's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.56 for Cadiz.
How the model reaches 48% for Real Sociedad II to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Real Sociedad II to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Real Sociedad II's ratings add 3 points and Cadiz's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Real Sociedad II's ratings46%+3
- Cadiz's ratings48%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Real Sociedad II at home · Cadiz away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Real Sociedad IICadiz
Real Sociedad II are 17th after 13 Segunda División matches (between 4th and 22nd so far); Cadiz are 20th after 13 (between 3rd and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Real Sociedad II 13, Cadiz 13.
Real Sociedad II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Cadiz have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Real Sociedad II
- at Valladolid29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- vs Leganes6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 52%
- at Oviedo13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Cordoba20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
Cadiz
- vs Cordoba29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
- at Burgos6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Sabadell13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- at FC Andorra20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.