Sabadell
vs
Granada CF
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Sabadell 1–0 Granada CF
The model makes it 38% Sabadell, 32% draw, 30% Granada CF — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sabadell 1.13, Granada CF 0.95.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Sabadell's rating is built from 13 Segunda División matches and Granada CF's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,076 matches.
Key facts
- Sabadell are 13th on 18 points from 13 games; Granada CF are 5th on 23 points from 12 games — Segunda División.
- Sabadell are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Real Sociedad II.
- Granada CF are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Eldense.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sabadell vs Granada CF
Has the model earned this number?
Sabadell at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sabadell vs Granada CF
Sabadell
Segunda División
- D0-0Real Sociedad II9 November 2026
- L1-2away to Albacete31 October 2026
- D1-1Tenerife25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Burgos18 October 2026
- W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC10 October 2026
Granada CF
Segunda División
- W2-0away to Eldense1 November 2026
- W2-1Valladolid23 October 2026
- W2-0Cadiz18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Burgos12 October 2026
- W3-2away to Real Sociedad II4 October 2026
What these results say
- Sabadell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabadell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Granada CF won every one of these 5 matches.
- Granada CF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Sabadell | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 18 |
| 5 | Granada CF | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Granada CF
Chance to finish in the top two · 9% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Sabadell and Granada CF
Sabadell
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Granada CF
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Pascual40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Granada CF (5th, with Sabadell 13th), while our numbers lean to Sabadell. Sabadell rate 0.54 in attack and 1.04 in defence, Granada CF 0.76 and 1.35 (lower is better in defence), so Sabadell have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sabadell a 0.1% chance of the title and Granada CF 2.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Sabadell v Granada CF has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 38% / 32% / 30%: the biggest move is Sabadell's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Sabadell win38%▼ −2
- Draw32%▲ +2
- Granada CF win30%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabadell the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Sabadell against 0.95 for Granada CF. Sabadell's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.35 for Granada CF.
How the model reaches 38% for Sabadell to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sabadell to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Sabadell's ratings take away 3 points and Granada CF's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level40%−3
- Sabadell's ratings37%−3
- Granada CF's ratings38%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sabadell at home · Granada CF away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SabadellGranada CF
Sabadell are 13th after 13 Segunda División matches (between 3rd and 13th so far); Granada CF are 5th after 12 (between 1st and 14th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Sabadell 13, Granada CF 12.
Sabadell score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Granada CF have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sabadell
- at Leganes29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 38%
- vs Eibar6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- at Cadiz13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- vs Las Palmas20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
Granada CF
- vs AD Ceuta FC29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 62%
- at Sporting Gijon6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- vs Girona13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.