Castellón
vs
Eldense
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Castellón 2–0 Eldense
The model makes it 63% Castellón, 23% draw, 14% Eldense — fair odds of 1.59, 4.35 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Castellón 2.08, Eldense 0.72.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Castellón are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Castellón's rating is built from 56 Segunda División matches and Eldense's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,076 matches.
Key facts
- Castellón are 2nd on 27 points from 12 games; Eldense are 15th on 14 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
- Castellón are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Burgos.
- Eldense are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Las Palmas.
- Last 4 meetings: Castellón 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 May 2025, ended Castellón 1–1 Eldense.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Castellón vs Eldense
Has the model earned this number?
Castellón at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Castellón vs Eldense
Castellón
Segunda División
- D1-1away to Burgos1 November 2026
- W4-0Sporting Gijon25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Las Palmas17 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Andorra11 October 2026
- D1-1AD Ceuta FC4 October 2026
Eldense
Segunda División
- L0-2away to Las Palmas9 November 2026
- L0-2Granada CF1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Albacete25 October 2026
- W3-2away to Valladolid18 October 2026
- W2-1Cordoba10 October 2026
What these results say
- Castellón scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eldense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Castellón | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 27 |
| 15 | Eldense | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Castellón
Chance to finish in the top two · 70% today
Eldense
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 32% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Castellón vs Eldense
- 18 May 2025Castellón 1–1 EldenseSegunda División
- 6 October 2024Eldense 2–3 CastellónSegunda División
- 12 February 2023Castellón 2–0 EldensePrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 30 October 2022Eldense 1–1 CastellónPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
Leading scorers: Castellón and Eldense
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero62
- Ousmane Camara41
Eldense
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Castellón a 46.4% chance of the title and Eldense 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Castellón the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Castellón against 0.72 for Eldense. Castellón's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.49 for Eldense.
How the model reaches 63% for Castellón to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Castellón to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Castellón's ratings add 10 points and Eldense's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Castellón's ratings52%+10
- Eldense's ratings63%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Castellón at home · Eldense away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
CastellónEldense
Castellón are 2nd after 12 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Eldense are 15th after 13 (between 11th and 21st). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Castellón 12, Eldense 13.
Eldense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Castellón have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Castellón
- at Mallorca29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Almeria6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 47%
- at Cordoba13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
Eldense
- vs Girona29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
- at Tenerife6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs FC Andorra13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 38%
- at Celta de Vigo II20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.