Tenerife
vs
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Tenerife 2–1 AD Ceuta FC
The model makes it 53% Tenerife, 25% draw, 22% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Tenerife 1.90, AD Ceuta FC 1.02.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,809 settled matches.
Edge to Tenerife: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Tenerife's rating is built from 11 Segunda División matches and AD Ceuta FC's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,061 matches.
Key facts
- Tenerife are 12th on 14 points from 11 games; AD Ceuta FC are bottom on 5 points from 11 games — Segunda División.
- Tenerife have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sabadell.
- AD Ceuta FC are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Cadiz.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC
Has the model earned this number?
Tenerife at 53%: of 1,376 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC
Tenerife
Segunda División
- D1-1away to Sabadell25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II19 October 2026
- D1-1Girona12 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026
- D1-1Cadiz26 September 2026
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División
- L1-3away to Cadiz25 October 2026
- L1-2Oviedo18 October 2026
- L1-2Sabadell10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Castellón4 October 2026
- W3-1Real Sociedad II26 September 2026
What these results say
- Tenerife did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for AD Ceuta FC.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tenerife | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Tenerife and AD Ceuta FC
Tenerife
GoalsAssists
- Enric Gallego70
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Tenerife carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.29 for AD Ceuta FC.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Tenerife and 1.02 for AD Ceuta FC.
Tenerife rate 0.66 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AD Ceuta FC rate 0.61 and 1.86.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tenerife a 0.1% chance of the title and AD Ceuta FC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tenerife the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Tenerife against 1.02 for AD Ceuta FC. Tenerife's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.86 for AD Ceuta FC.
How the model reaches 53% for Tenerife to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Tenerife to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Tenerife's ratings add 5 points and AD Ceuta FC's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Tenerife's ratings48%+5
- AD Ceuta FC's ratings53%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Tenerife at home · AD Ceuta FC away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Tenerife 11, AD Ceuta FC 11.
Tenerife score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); AD Ceuta FC have let in 5 there.
AD Ceuta FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Tenerife have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Tenerife
- vs Mallorca22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- at Albacete29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Eldense6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
AD Ceuta FC
- vs Almeria22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
- at Granada CF29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Albacete6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.