Regular Season - 11 · 15 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Benfica B vs AVS Segunda Liga prediction

Benfica Campus, Seixal

Our model says: Benfica B 1–0 AVS

The model makes it 51% Benfica B, 26% draw, 23% AVS — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Benfica B 1.76, AVS 0.99.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,809 settled matches.

Edge to Benfica B: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Benfica B's rating is built from 43 Liga Portugal 2 matches and AVS's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Benfica B are 3rd on 17 points from 9 games; AVS are 8th on 12 points from 9 games — Segunda Liga.
  • Benfica B are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Chaves.
  • AVS have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to União de Leiria.
  • Last 2 meetings: AVS 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 April 2024, ended Benfica B 0–1 AVS.

More Liga Portugal 2 predictions

All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Benfica B vs AVS

52%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Benfica B win Draw AVS win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Benfica B first; the other scorelines share the remaining 39%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Benfica B at 51%: of 1,376 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Benfica B vs AVS

Benfica B

Segunda Liga

  • W3-1Chaves31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Feirense24 October 2026
  • W1-0Felgueiras 193212 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Academica11 September 2026
  • L0-2Torreense5 September 2026

AVS

Segunda Liga

  • L1-2away to União de Leiria31 October 2026
  • W2-1Tondela25 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Penafiel9 October 2026
  • D0-0Farense13 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Lusitânia Lourosa7 September 2026

What these results say

  • AVS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AVS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for AVS had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Benfica B9522116+517
8AVS93331110+112

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Benfica B vs AVS

  • 13 April 2024Benfica B 0–1 AVSSegunda Liga
  • 2 December 2023AVS 1–0 Benfica BSegunda Liga

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Benfica B carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.45 for AVS.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Benfica B and 0.99 for AVS.

Benfica B rate 0.73 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AVS rate 0.66 and 1.48.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Benfica B a 16.1% chance of the title and AVS 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Benfica B the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Benfica B against 0.99 for AVS. Benfica B's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.48 for AVS.

How the model reaches 51% for Benfica B to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Benfica B to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Benfica B's ratings add 3 points and AVS's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 51%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Benfica B's ratings47%+3
  4. AVS's ratings51%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Benfica BAVS
9Matches9
5W 2D 2LRecord3W 3D 3L
11 1.2 per gameGoals scored11 1.2 per game
6 0.7 per gameGoals conceded10 1.1 per game
4 of 9Clean sheets2 of 9
3 of 9Failed to score2 of 9
2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
21 2.3 per gameYellow cards30 3.3 per game
0Red cards1
4-3-3 6×Usual shape4-3-3 7×

Benfica B at home · AVS away

5Played5
3W 1D 1LRecord1W 2D 2L
6–4Goals for – against7–8
2 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda Liga matches this season: Benfica B 9, AVS 9.

Benfica B scored 231013
AVS conceded 111025
AVS scored 220313
Benfica B conceded 212010

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Benfica B

  • at Penafiel29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 30%
  • vs Lusitânia Lourosa6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 52%
  • vs Vizela13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 56%
  • at Tondela20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 36%

AVS

  • vs Leixoes29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 52%
  • at Amarante6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 36%
  • vs Portimonense13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 51%
  • at Academica20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 25%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.