Granada CF
vs
Las Palmas
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Granada CF 2–1 Las Palmas
The model makes it 47% Granada CF, 26% draw, 27% Las Palmas — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Granada CF 1.72, Las Palmas 1.20.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,531 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Granada CF's rating is built from 53 Segunda División matches and Las Palmas's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,061 matches.
Key facts
- Granada CF are 5th on 20 points from 11 games; Las Palmas are 14th on 14 points from 11 games — Segunda División.
- Granada CF are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Valladolid.
- Las Palmas have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Real Sociedad II.
- Last 6 meetings: Las Palmas 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 April 2026, ended Las Palmas 2–0 Granada CF.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Granada CF vs Las Palmas
Has the model earned this number?
Granada CF at 47%: of 2,529 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.4% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Granada CF vs Las Palmas
Granada CF
Segunda División
- W2-1Valladolid23 October 2026
- W2-0Cadiz18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Burgos12 October 2026
- W3-2away to Real Sociedad II4 October 2026
- L2-3FC Andorra26 September 2026
Las Palmas
Segunda División
- W1-0Real Sociedad II24 October 2026
- L0-3Castellón17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Mallorca11 October 2026
- D2-2Valladolid4 October 2026
- L2-3away to Eibar27 September 2026
What these results say
- Granada CF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Granada CF won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Las Palmas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Las Palmas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Las Palmas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
| 14 | Las Palmas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Granada CF vs Las Palmas
- 2 April 2026Las Palmas 2–0 Granada CFSegunda División
- 10 October 2025Granada CF 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 25 July 2024Las Palmas 1–1 Granada CFFriendlies Clubs
- 3 February 2024Granada CF 1–1 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 24 September 2023Las Palmas 1–0 Granada CFLa Liga
- 15 April 2023Granada CF 2–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
Leading scorers: Granada CF and Las Palmas
Granada CF
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Pascual40
Las Palmas
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Granada CF carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.48 for Las Palmas.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Granada CF and 1.20 for Las Palmas.
Granada CF rate 0.75 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Las Palmas rate 0.70 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Granada CF a 1% chance of the title and Las Palmas 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Granada CF the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Granada CF against 1.20 for Las Palmas. Granada CF's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.48 for Las Palmas.
How the model reaches 47% for Granada CF to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Granada CF to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Granada CF's ratings add 2 points and Las Palmas's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Granada CF's ratings45%+2
- Las Palmas's ratings47%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Granada CF at home · Las Palmas away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Granada CFLas Palmas
Granada CF are 5th after 11 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 14th so far); Las Palmas are 14th after 11 (between 1st and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Granada CF 11, Las Palmas 11.
Granada CF score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Las Palmas have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Granada CF
- at Sabadell22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- vs AD Ceuta FC29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 58%
- at Sporting Gijon6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
Las Palmas
- at Sporting Gijon22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- vs FC Andorra29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- at Cordoba6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.