AD Ceuta FC
vs
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Sporting Gijon
The model makes it 30% AD Ceuta FC, 28% draw, 42% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: AD Ceuta FC 1.19, Sporting Gijon 1.52.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Sporting Gijon: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- AD Ceuta FC are 21st on 5 points from 9 games; Sporting Gijon are 4th on 19 points from 10 games — Segunda División.
- AD Ceuta FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Sabadell.
- Sporting Gijon are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Albacete.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Sporting Gijon 1–2 AD Ceuta FC.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Gijon at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon
AD Ceuta FC
- L1-2Sabadell10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Castellón4 October 2026
- W3-1Real Sociedad II26 September 2026
- D1-1Valladolid20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
Sporting Gijon
- W2-1Albacete17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Cadiz11 October 2026
- W3-2Celta de Vigo II4 October 2026
- L0-2away to Oviedo27 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Andorra19 September 2026
What these results say
- AD Ceuta FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for AD Ceuta FC.
- Sporting Gijon won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Gijon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Gijon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 5 |
| 4 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon
- 3 May 2026Sporting Gijon 1–2 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
- 23 August 2025AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Sporting Gijon
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AD Ceuta FC carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.57 for Sporting Gijon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for AD Ceuta FC and 1.52 for Sporting Gijon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AD Ceuta FC rate 0.62 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Gijon rate 0.71 and 1.25.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AD Ceuta FC a 0% chance of the title and Sporting Gijon 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Gijon the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for AD Ceuta FC against 1.52 for Sporting Gijon. AD Ceuta FC's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.25 for Sporting Gijon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AD Ceuta FC at home · Sporting Gijon away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AD Ceuta FCSporting Gijon
AD Ceuta FC are 21st after 9 Segunda División matches (between 19th and 22nd so far); Sporting Gijon are 4th after 10 (between 1st and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: AD Ceuta FC 9, Sporting Gijon 10.
AD Ceuta FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sporting Gijon have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AD Ceuta FC
- at Cordoba8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- at Tenerife15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%
- vs Almeria22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
Sporting Gijon
- vs Valladolid8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 47%
- at Real Sociedad II15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
- vs Las Palmas22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 48%
- at Almeria29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.