Regular Season - 11 · 15 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932 Segunda Liga prediction

Amarante Stadium, Amarante

Our model says: Amarante 1–0 Felgueiras 1932

The model makes it 38% Amarante, 30% draw, 32% Felgueiras 1932 — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Amarante 1.26, Felgueiras 1932 1.11.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,143 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Amarante's rating is built from 9 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Felgueiras 1932's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Amarante are 14th on 8 points from 9 games; Felgueiras 1932 are 17th on 7 points from 8 games — Segunda Liga.
  • Amarante have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Porto B.
  • Felgueiras 1932 are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Lusitânia Lourosa.
  • Last 2 meetings: Amarante 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 February 2020, ended Felgueiras 1932 3–5 Amarante.

More Liga Portugal 2 predictions

All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932

49%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Amarante win Draw Felgueiras 1932 win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 0–110%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–07%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Amarante first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Amarante at 38%: of 4,156 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.5% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932

Amarante

Segunda Liga

  • W2-1FC Porto B31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Torreense26 October 2026
  • L1-2Portimonense10 October 2026
  • D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Leixoes6 September 2026

Felgueiras 1932

Segunda Liga

  • D2-2Lusitânia Lourosa25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Benfica B12 October 2026
  • L1-2Penafiel12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Vizela6 September 2026
  • W2-1Chaves30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Amarante conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Amarante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Amarante scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Felgueiras 1932 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Felgueiras 1932 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Amarante9225812-48
17Felgueiras 1932814379-27

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Amarante

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 48% today

Win 40%
Draw 49%
Defeat 55%

Felgueiras 1932

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 24% today

Win 18%
Draw 23%
Defeat 29%

From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932

  • 2 February 2020Felgueiras 1932 3–5 AmaranteCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
  • 1 September 2019Amarante 0–0 Felgueiras 1932Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

Leading scorers: Amarante and Felgueiras 1932

Amarante

GoalsAssists

  • Gonçalo Cunha10

Felgueiras 1932

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Amarante carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.38 for Felgueiras 1932.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Amarante and 1.11 for Felgueiras 1932.

Amarante rate 0.54 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Felgueiras 1932 rate 0.55 and 1.43.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Amarante a 0% chance of the title and Felgueiras 1932 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Amarante the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Amarante against 1.11 for Felgueiras 1932. Amarante's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.43 for Felgueiras 1932.

How the model reaches 38% for Amarante to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Amarante to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Amarante's ratings take away 2 points and Felgueiras 1932's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Amarante's ratings41%−2
  5. Felgueiras 1932's ratings38%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

AmaranteFelgueiras 1932
9Matches8
2W 2D 5LRecord1W 4D 3L
8 0.9 per gameGoals scored7 0.9 per game
12 1.3 per gameGoals conceded9 1.1 per game
2 of 9Clean sheets1 of 8
3 of 9Failed to score3 of 8
0 of 1Penalties scored–
17 1.9 per gameYellow cards20 2.5 per game
1Red cards2
3-4-3 4×Usual shape4-4-2 5×

Amarante at home · Felgueiras 1932 away

5Played4
2W 1D 2LRecord0W 2D 2L
6–6Goals for – against1–3
1 of 5Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda Liga matches this season: Amarante 9, Felgueiras 1932 8.

Amarante scored 121012
Felgueiras 1932 conceded 022221
Felgueiras 1932 scored 021211
Amarante conceded 223221

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Amarante

  • at Sporting CP B30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 18%
  • vs AVS6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%
  • at Farense13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 21%
  • vs Chaves20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 45%

Felgueiras 1932

  • vs FC Porto B29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 42%
  • at Portimonense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 32%
  • vs Torreense13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 37%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.