Belgium
vs
Italy
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Belgium 1–0 Italy
The model makes it 38% Belgium, 30% draw, 32% Italy — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Belgium 1.24, Italy 1.09.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Belgium's rating is built from its last 5 matches; Italy's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Belgium are 3rd on 6 points from 4 games; Italy are 2nd on 7 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- Belgium have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to France.
- Italy are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Türkiye.
- Last 6 meetings: Italy 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 September 2026, ended Italy 0–2 Belgium.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Belgium vs Italy
Has the model earned this number?
Belgium at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Belgium vs Italy
Belgium
UEFA Nations League
- L1-4away to France5 October 2026
- W3-0Türkiye2 October 2026
- L0-1France28 September 2026
- W2-0away to Italy25 September 2026
Italy
UEFA Nations League
- W3-1Türkiye5 October 2026
- D1-1away to France2 October 2026
- W4-1away to Türkiye28 September 2026
- L0-2Belgium25 September 2026
What these results say
- Belgium scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Italy conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Italy scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Italy.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Belgium vs Italy
Belgium and Italy have met 6 times in the records we hold, Italy has won 4 of them to Belgium's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Belgium won the last one 2–0 on 25 Sep 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| Italy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Sep 2026
UEFA Nations LeagueItaly 0–2 Belgium - 14 Nov 2024
UEFA Nations LeagueBelgium 0–1 Italy - 10 Oct 2024
UEFA Nations LeagueItaly 2–2 Belgium - 10 Oct 2021
UEFA Nations LeagueItaly 2–1 Belgium - 2 Jul 2021
Euro ChampionshipBelgium 1–2 Italy - 13 Jun 2016
Euro ChampionshipBelgium 0–2 Italy
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Belgium's attack rates 5% above Italy's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Belgium and Italy
Belgium
GoalsAssists
- D. Lukebakio21
Italy
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Italy (second, with Belgium third), while our numbers lean to Belgium. Belgium rate 1.50 in attack and 0.61 in defence, Italy 1.43 and 0.61 (lower is better in defence), so Belgium have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Belgium the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Belgium against 1.09 for Italy. Belgium's attack/defence rating is 1.5/0.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.43/0.61 for Italy.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 38% for Belgium to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Belgium to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Belgium's ratings change nothing and Italy's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level37%−1
- Belgium's ratings37%±0
- Italy's ratings38%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.