Eldense
vs
Sabadell
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Eldense 1–0 Sabadell
The model makes it 38% Eldense, 31% draw, 31% Sabadell — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Eldense 1.20, Sabadell 1.03.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,143 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Eldense's rating is built from 11 Segunda División matches and Sabadell's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,061 matches.
Key facts
- Eldense are 13th on 14 points from 11 games; Sabadell are 10th on 17 points from 12 games — Segunda División.
- Eldense have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Albacete.
- Sabadell are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Albacete.
- Last 4 meetings: Eldense 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Eldense 2–1 Sabadell.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Eldense vs Sabadell
Has the model earned this number?
Eldense at 38%: of 4,156 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.5% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Eldense vs Sabadell
Eldense
Segunda División
- L0-2away to Albacete25 October 2026
- W3-2away to Valladolid18 October 2026
- W2-1Cordoba10 October 2026
- W4-1Oviedo2 October 2026
- L0-1away to Burgos27 September 2026
Sabadell
Segunda División
- L1-2away to Albacete31 October 2026
- D1-1Tenerife25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Burgos18 October 2026
- W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC10 October 2026
- D0-0FC Andorra4 October 2026
What these results say
- Eldense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sabadell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabadell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Eldense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Sabadell | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Eldense vs Sabadell
- 7 February 2026Eldense 2–1 SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 30 August 2025Sabadell 0–0 EldensePrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 19 February 2023Eldense 1–0 SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 9 October 2022Sabadell 1–3 EldensePrimera División RFEF - Group 2
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Eldense carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.56 for Sabadell.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Eldense and 1.03 for Sabadell.
Eldense rate 0.70 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sabadell rate 0.60 and 1.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sabadell, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Eldense a 0.1% chance of the title and Sabadell 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eldense the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Eldense against 1.03 for Sabadell. Eldense's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.11 for Sabadell.
How the model reaches 38% for Eldense to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Eldense to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Eldense's ratings change nothing and Sabadell's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level41%−2
- Eldense's ratings41%±0
- Sabadell's ratings38%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Eldense at home · Sabadell away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Eldense 11, Sabadell 12.
Eldense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sabadell have let in 1 there.
Sabadell score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Eldense have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Eldense
- at Castellón22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 17%
- vs Girona29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
- at Tenerife6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
Sabadell
- vs Granada CF22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
- at Leganes29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 38%
- vs Eibar6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- at Cadiz13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.