Eibar
vs
Cadiz
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Eibar 1–0 Cadiz
The model makes it 56% Eibar, 25% draw, 19% Cadiz — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Eibar 1.84, Cadiz 0.83.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,809 settled matches.
Edge to Eibar: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Eibar's rating is built from 54 Segunda División matches and Cadiz's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,061 matches.
Key facts
- Eibar are 3rd on 23 points from 12 games; Cadiz are 19th on 10 points from 11 games — Segunda División.
- Eibar are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Almeria.
- Cadiz have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to AD Ceuta FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Cadiz 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended Eibar 3–1 Cadiz.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Eibar vs Cadiz
Has the model earned this number?
Eibar at 56%: of 1,376 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Eibar vs Cadiz
Eibar
Segunda División
- D1-1Almeria31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Cordoba24 October 2026
- D1-1Mallorca17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Oviedo12 October 2026
- W3-1away to Albacete3 October 2026
Cadiz
Segunda División
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Granada CF18 October 2026
- L0-1Sporting Gijon11 October 2026
- W4-0Leganes3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tenerife26 September 2026
What these results say
- Eibar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Eibar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eibar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cadiz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 23 |
| 19 | Cadiz | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Eibar vs Cadiz
- 1 March 2026Eibar 3–1 CadizSegunda División
- 13 September 2025Cadiz 1–0 EibarSegunda División
- 31 March 2025Cadiz 0–0 EibarSegunda División
- 23 October 2024Eibar 1–0 CadizSegunda División
- 6 March 2021Cadiz 1–0 EibarLa Liga
- 30 October 2020Eibar 0–2 CadizLa Liga
Leading scorers: Eibar and Cadiz
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Iván Gil41
- Jon Guruzeta32
Cadiz
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Cordero41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Eibar carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.39 for Cadiz.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Eibar and 0.83 for Cadiz.
Eibar rate 0.78 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cadiz rate 0.60 and 1.52.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Eibar a 5.3% chance of the title and Cadiz 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eibar the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Eibar against 0.83 for Cadiz. Eibar's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.52 for Cadiz.
How the model reaches 56% for Eibar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Eibar to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Eibar's ratings add 7 points and Cadiz's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Eibar's ratings49%+7
- Cadiz's ratings56%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Eibar at home · Cadiz away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
EibarCadiz
Eibar are 3rd after 12 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 20th so far); Cadiz are 19th after 11 (between 3rd and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Eibar 12, Cadiz 11.
Eibar score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Cadiz have let in 1 there.
Cadiz score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Eibar have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Eibar
- at Girona22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Burgos29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%
- at Sabadell6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Sporting Gijon13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
Cadiz
- at Real Sociedad II22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
- vs Cordoba29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- at Burgos6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.