Tenerife
vs
FC Andorra
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Tenerife 2–1 FC Andorra
The model makes it 39% Tenerife, 27% draw, 34% FC Andorra — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Tenerife 1.52, FC Andorra 1.39.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Tenerife are 12th on 12 points from 9 games; FC Andorra are 18th on 10 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Tenerife are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Girona.
- FC Andorra are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Castellón.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 February 2024, ended Tenerife 0–0 FC Andorra.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tenerife vs FC Andorra
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tenerife at 39% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tenerife vs FC Andorra
Tenerife
- D1-1Girona12 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026
- D1-1Cadiz26 September 2026
- L0-5away to Castellón19 September 2026
- W2-0Leganes13 September 2026
FC Andorra
- W1-0Castellón11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sabadell4 October 2026
- W3-2away to Granada CF26 September 2026
- L1-3Sporting Gijon19 September 2026
- L1-3Real Sociedad II12 September 2026
What these results say
- Tenerife failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Andorra scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 12 |
| 18 | FC Andorra | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tenerife vs FC Andorra
- 3 February 2024Tenerife 0–0 FC AndorraSegunda División
- 3 September 2023FC Andorra 0–1 TenerifeSegunda División
- 14 May 2023FC Andorra 1–0 TenerifeSegunda División
- 16 December 2022Tenerife 1–1 FC AndorraSegunda División
Leading scorers: Tenerife and FC Andorra
Tenerife
GoalsAssists
- Enric Gallego60
FC Andorra
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Cano42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tenerife carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.54 for FC Andorra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Tenerife and 1.39 for FC Andorra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tenerife rate 0.67 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Andorra rate 0.78 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tenerife a 0.1% chance of the title and FC Andorra 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tenerife the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Tenerife against 1.39 for FC Andorra. Tenerife's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.47 for FC Andorra.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tenerife at home · FC Andorra away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
TenerifeFC Andorra
Tenerife are 12th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 2nd and 12th so far); FC Andorra are 16th after 9 (between 1st and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Tenerife 9, FC Andorra 9.
Tenerife score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); FC Andorra have let in 0 there.
FC Andorra score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Tenerife have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Tenerife
- at Granada CF8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- vs AD Ceuta FC15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 51%
- vs Mallorca22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
FC Andorra
- vs Mallorca8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- at Almeria15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 22%
- vs Leganes22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.