Oviedo
vs
Las Palmas
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Oviedo 1–0 Las Palmas
The model makes it 52% Oviedo, 26% draw, 22% Las Palmas — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Oviedo 1.80, Las Palmas 0.98.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Oviedo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Oviedo are 9th on 14 points from 9 games; Las Palmas are 16th on 11 points from 10 games — Segunda División.
- Oviedo have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Eibar.
- Las Palmas have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Castellón.
- Last 6 meetings: Oviedo 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 April 2023, ended Las Palmas 0–1 Oviedo.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Oviedo vs Las Palmas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oviedo at 52% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Oviedo vs Las Palmas
Oviedo
- W3-1Eibar12 October 2026
- L1-4away to Eldense2 October 2026
- W2-0Sporting Gijon27 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sabadell20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Valladolid13 September 2026
Las Palmas
- L0-3Castellón17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Mallorca11 October 2026
- D2-2Valladolid4 October 2026
- L2-3away to Eibar27 September 2026
- L1-2Burgos20 September 2026
What these results say
- Oviedo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Oviedo had three goals or more.
- Las Palmas did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Las Palmas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Las Palmas had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Oviedo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 | Las Palmas | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Oviedo vs Las Palmas
- 9 April 2023Las Palmas 0–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 6 December 2022Oviedo 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 21 May 2022Las Palmas 2–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 6 November 2021Oviedo 1–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 10 April 2021Oviedo 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 31 October 2020Las Palmas 1–2 OviedoSegunda División
The two sides
Oviedo carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.47 for Las Palmas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Oviedo and 0.98 for Las Palmas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oviedo rate 0.75 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Las Palmas rate 0.73 and 1.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oviedo a 2.1% chance of the title and Las Palmas 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oviedo the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Oviedo against 0.98 for Las Palmas. Oviedo's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.56 for Las Palmas.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Oviedo at home · Las Palmas away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
OviedoLas Palmas
Oviedo are 9th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 5th and 16th so far); Las Palmas are 16th after 10 (between 1st and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Oviedo 9, Las Palmas 10.
Oviedo score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Las Palmas have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Oviedo
- at Cadiz8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
- vs Girona15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
- at Cordoba22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
Las Palmas
- vs Eldense8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
- at Granada CF15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- at Sporting Gijon22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- vs FC Andorra29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.