Eldense
vs
Granada CF
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Eldense 1–0 Granada CF
The model makes it 45% Eldense, 27% draw, 28% Granada CF — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Eldense 1.60, Granada CF 1.17.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Eldense are 15th on 11 points from 9 games; Granada CF are 10th on 14 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Eldense have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cordoba.
- Granada CF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Burgos.
- Last 2 meetings: Granada CF 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2025, ended Eldense 0–3 Granada CF.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Eldense vs Granada CF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eldense at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Eldense vs Granada CF
Eldense
- W2-1Cordoba10 October 2026
- W4-1Oviedo2 October 2026
- L0-1away to Burgos27 September 2026
- L1-2Eibar19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sporting Gijon13 September 2026
Granada CF
- W1-0away to Burgos12 October 2026
- W3-2away to Real Sociedad II4 October 2026
- L2-3FC Andorra26 September 2026
- L2-3away to Leganes20 September 2026
- D1-1Albacete12 September 2026
What these results say
- Eldense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eldense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Granada CF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Granada CF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Granada CF.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Eldense vs Granada CF
- 31 January 2025Eldense 0–3 Granada CFSegunda División
- 9 November 2024Granada CF 3–2 EldenseSegunda División
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Eldense carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.49 for Granada CF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Eldense and 1.17 for Granada CF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Eldense rate 0.69 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Granada CF rate 0.73 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Granada CF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Eldense a 0.1% chance of the title and Granada CF 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eldense the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Eldense against 1.17 for Granada CF. Eldense's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.51 for Granada CF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Eldense at home · Granada CF away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
EldenseGranada CF
Eldense are 12th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 12th and 21st so far); Granada CF are 9th after 9 (between 1st and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Eldense 9, Granada CF 9.
Eldense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Granada CF have let in 3 there.
Granada CF score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Eldense have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Eldense
- at Las Palmas8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- vs Sabadell15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- at Castellón22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 20%
Granada CF
- vs Tenerife8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
- vs Las Palmas15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
- at Sabadell22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.