Témouchent
vs
USM Alger
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Témouchent 0–1 USM Alger
The model makes it 31% Témouchent, 28% draw, 41% USM Alger — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Témouchent 1.18, USM Alger 1.44.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to USM Alger: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Témouchent's rating is built from 9 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and USM Alger's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Témouchent are 9th on 10 points from 9 games; USM Alger are 6th on 14 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Témouchent are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Khenchela.
- USM Alger are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to CS Constantine.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Témouchent vs USM Alger
Has the model earned this number?
USM Alger at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Témouchent vs USM Alger
Témouchent
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to Khenchela8 November 2026
- D1-1US Biskra2 November 2026
- W2-1away to ES Setif24 October 2026
- D1-1ASO Chlef18 October 2026
- L0-2MB Rouisset14 October 2026
USM Alger
Ligue 1
- W2-0away to CS Constantine31 October 2026
- D2-2CR Belouizdad24 October 2026
- W1-0JS Saoura13 October 2026
- L0-1away to MB Rouisset8 October 2026
- W3-2away to Olympique Akbou19 September 2026
What these results say
- Témouchent conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Témouchent failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Témouchent scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- USM Alger scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Algeria Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Témouchent | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | USM Alger | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Témouchent
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today
USM Alger
Chance to finish in the top two · 18% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Témouchent vs USM Alger
- 27 March 2025Témouchent 0–5 USM AlgerCoupe Nationale
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Témouchent a 0% chance of the title and USM Alger 6.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives USM Alger the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Témouchent against 1.44 for USM Alger. Témouchent's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.58 for USM Alger.
How the model reaches 41% for USM Alger to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for USM Alger to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Témouchent's ratings add 6 points and USM Alger's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Témouchent's ratings34%+6
- USM Alger's ratings41%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Témouchent at home · USM Alger away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Témouchent 9, USM Alger 7.
Témouchent score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); USM Alger have let in 0 there.
USM Alger score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Témouchent have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Témouchent
- at JS Saoura28 Nov · Ligue 1win 23%
- at Olympique Akbou1 Dec · Ligue 1win 20%
- vs Ben Aknoun26 Dec · Ligue 1win 38%
- at CR Belouizdad31 Dec · Ligue 1win 14%
USM Alger
- at Ben Aknoun23 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- vs ASO Chlef28 Nov · Ligue 1win 59%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.